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Sunday, September 18, 2011

Week 2 NFL Picks, Fantasy Thoughts

Last week was a horrendous week for me. So it's time to get back on track. Not only were my selections awful, but I never got my Thursday night pick in and I didn't choose my usual LOCK and UPSET pick. So this week, we're finally tuned up. Let's call Week 1 the preseason for predictions. This is the real deal.

Oakland 24, Buffalo 17.
Green Bay 31, Carolina 10. [LOCK]
Kansas City 16, Detroit 33.
Cleveland 17, Indianapolis 14.
Tampa Bay 27, Minnesota 21.
Chicago 20, New Orleans 28.
Jacksonville 10, NY Jets 27.
Seattle 12, Pittsburgh 19.
Baltimore 24, Tennessee 13.
Arizona 17, Washington 20.
Dallas 23, San Francisco 14.
Cincinnati 7, Denver 17.
Houston 26, Miami 28.
San Diego 24, New England 35.
Philadelphia 30, Atlanta 20.
St. Louis 21, NY Giants 17. [UPSET]

There are your Week 2 winners. What about fantasy football? I haven't talked much about it so far. To be honest, I'm not sure if I'm qualified to after last week. I lost my opening matchup in both of my leagues, and in one of those leagues, I benched nearly a hundred points (see: Matthew Stafford, Steve Smith, Cedric Benson, & more). But I'll just go with the Matthew Berry approach. I'll give you a few guys I like as sleepers and a few guys I dislike as busts in the second week of the season.

Me gusta (Players I like)
1. Cadillac Williams vs NY Giants. If Steven Jackson is hurt, Cadillac is going to be a pretty good play on Monday Night Football. The fact that he is on Monday night is a little alarming, since you'll have to know for certain that Jackson is inactive before he's a safe bet. Still, he performed well with his carries last week and I see him continuing to do the same on a Rams offense that may see a banged up Sam Bradford hand the ball off more than usual.
2. Tim Hightower vs Arizona. Hightower is a guy I have liked from the outset, being in a Mike Shanahan system that has a history of churning out 1,000-yard rushers. Against his former squad, Hightower will look to shred the Cardinals defense -- a defense which gave up 422 passing yards to Cam Newton last week. What do you think Arizona's defensive group has been focusing on all week? Hey guys, don't forget about the rush defense. Shoot. I think they forgot about the rush defense.
3. LeGarrette Blount vs Minnesota. I had him benched all week, but I think I'm putting him back in there. I'm a little biased because I'm hoping to see the production out of him, but I have to agree with Matthew Berry on this one. He got 5 carries last week, was ineffective, and the Bucs lost. Common sense says you'll change things up a bit. It's not a terribly difficult matchup, and this guy was a 1,000-yard rusher last season. Whatever the gaffe was in Week 1, I'm thinking (hoping) that it's a thing of the past for Blount.

No me gusta (Players I dislike)
1. Jamaal Charles vs Detroit. Look, I know you Charles owners had to start him in Week 1 against Buffalo. It didn't work out quite as well as you'd hoped. He'll bounce back, right? Well, I'm not so convinced. I don't think you're going to get normal Charles production out of him this week, and I actually don't know if you'll even get formidable production out of him. Seeing what Ryan Fitzpatrick did to the Chiefs defense leads me to believe Matt Stafford will shred them apart. If he does that, KC will need to pass the ball. On top of that, the Lions defensive front is a ball hawking, very aggressive bunch who may give Charles owners fits this afternoon.
2. Rex Grossman vs Arizona. Matthew Berry loves Sexy Rexy again this week, but I tend to believe otherwise. Look at Cam Newton's performance last week. A lot of it was due to broken coverage, not laser beams that found tight holes in the secondary. They were fundamental mistakes that can be corrected. Corresponding to the fact that I like Hightower this week, I'm guessing the Cards defense allotted their whole practice week to fixing the horrible coverage woes that surfaced in Week 1. They probably fixed a good amount of them. At least enough to keep Grossman in check.
3. Plaxico Burress vs Jacksonville. Owners who took a chance starting Plax last week ended up getting rewarded with some points. I would cash out while you're ahead. (No, I'm not saying to drop him. Just saying to bench him for the week.) Whether Pats fans like it or not, the Jets are probably going to get a pretty big lead and control the game against the Jaguars. Marky Mark won't be throwing to Plax very much if they don't need to air it out. I wouldn't be surprised if I could count his fantasy points on one hand without my thumb today.
 

 

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