Fantasy Outlook -- Week 1 Rankings

Can Philip Rivers light up KC's defense this week?

It's been a slow ride over the past week or so on Ultimate Boston, but you had to know we would never fail you when it comes to fantasy football, week one. You can't mess that one up. So here it is. My top ranked QBs, RBs, and WRs for opening week of the NFL season. Additionally, I'm picking my winners (and scores just for the hell of it) for the games. We'll revisit all of this once the results are completely history on Tuesday.

Quarterbacks, Week 1.


1. Drew Brees vs MIN -- I know, Brees is the easy selection. But the fact is, he figured out this Vikings defense in last year's championship game. Minnesota is too damn focused on Brett Favre to be figuring out the QB across the field on the other sideline. He'll light up this Vikings secondary just like he did in the NFC Championship game.


2. Tom Brady vs CIN -- The Bengals have a pretty decent secondary, but will they be able to rush the passer effectively? They were very mediocre last season, and that won't cut it against Brady and the Patriots. If you give Brady time, he fires laser beams into tight holes. This is the first game in the season that Brady proves all of his critics wrong. You call me crazy, I call it a leap of faith with some logic behind it.

3. Philip Rivers vs KC -- Kansas City had a middle-of-the-road pass defense last season, and I think Rivers will be the beneficiary this week. He's been flying under the radar all preseason because of the loss of Vincent Jackson. While that downgrades his value on the season as a whole, Rivers will be just fine in week one.

4. Jay Cutler vs DET -- Wait... what? Jay Cutler? Yes, Jay Cutler. Do you understand how bad the Lions defense is? The average QB rating against Detroit last year was 107.0. Triple digit passer rating on average. That's horrendous. 35 passing touchdowns allowed. Over 4,200 passing yards allowed. All worst in the league by far. Cutler has some talented weapons in the receiving core, and despite his poor decision making, he's a physically talented QB. The Lions won't even force him to make tough decisions. Cutler will perform... this week, anyway.

5. Aaron Rodgers vs PHI -- Rodgers is going to be league MVP. Even in a matchup that might not be as favorable as others, he'll always put the numbers up. He can scramble and he still throws a better ball than most QBs in the NFL. He's the complete package under center and the Packers have groomed him perfectly. And I guess it helps that Philadelphia was among the 10 worst in the NFL last season for passing touchdowns allowed.

6. Tony Romo vs WAS -- Romo has the potential to have an even bigger season than usual this year, and it will start against a subpar Washington defensive group. Romo has Miles Austin returning and an emerging rookie talent in Dez Bryant, both players that will help his stats. The Redskins were in the middle of the pack for pass defense last season, but Dallas looks to live up to the hype and send their division rivals to the bottom of the charts after week one.

7. Peyton Manning vs HOU -- Why do I rank Manning so low? I don't know. I just don't think he's as good as everyone else thinks he is. And I think Houston has always given Indy trouble. So I just have a feeling Manning doesn't light it up this week. Give me the 6 guys above him. I'll pass on Peyton for now.

8. Matt Schaub vs IND -- Truth be told, I don't see a huge passing day for either team in this game. But Schaub should be just as good as Peyton. The Colts allowed the most receptions in the NFL last season -- their bend-but-don't-break style might get broken by Andre Johnson. If Schaub's going to have success, it will be through his horse. Look for the Schaub to AJ connection to make Schaub a viable option this week.

9. Derek Anderson vs STL -- Same deal as Cutler here. Anderson is facing a brutal pass defense in St. Louis. He has some talented receivers. He's obviously doing something right, because he ran Matt Lienart straight out of town. It might be a stretch to include him in the top ten, but I see a pretty solid day out of Anderson this week.

10. Joe Flacco vs NYJ -- Just about everyone is staying away from Flacco against the Jets this week. But Darrelle Revis will not be in game shape yet. So I think the Jets defense takes a considerable hit without him (and Calvin Pace). Flacco should have a pretty decent day on what I believe will be a wake-up call to the world, reminding everyone that the Jets actually aren't world beaters just yet.

Chris Johnson will face a shaky Oakland defense.

Running Backs, Week 1.


1. Chris Johnson vs OAK -- Chris Johnson. Enough said. The man is superhuman and he's facing the God-awful Oakland Raiders. It has all the makings for a huge day, and I fully expect it will be. No reason to get off the winning horse.

2. Steven Jackson vs ARI -- The Cardinals aren't a very good rush defense at all. They gave up 4.5 yards per carry last season and ranked near the bottom when it comes to allowing the big play on the ground. They force very few fumbles. Sounds like a defense that Jackson will shred to pieces, especially since Sam Bradford displayed proficient talent in the preseason. Defenses just might have one more thing to at least think about, and Jackson will take full advantage.

3. Adrian Peterson vs NO -- The Saints' biggest problem last year was stopping the run. And as much as I don't really like the guy, AP is a runner. He fumbles alot, and the Saints force alot of turnovers. That might be something to watch out for. Still, with Brett Favre very questionable in the early going and Minnesota's receivers so banged up, you won't have to worry about Peterson missing out on any carries.

4. Maurice Jones-Drew vs DEN -- Jones-Drew is as close to a sure thing as you can get in the backfield, and he -- like these other guys -- is the undisputed best offensive weapon on his team. Something is to be said for that. He'll always be near the top of the rankings. Having not seen anything to change that, I see no reason to drop him.

5. Frank Gore vs SEA -- Seattle has a new coach in Pete Carroll, but I'm still not sure they can slow down Gore. The Niners have seemed to show a clear intention of really using Gore more heavily this year, and I think that will be evident right from the get-go.

6. Ray Rice vs NYJ -- Same deal with Flacco. Everyone is shying away from Rice because of the Jets. The Jets aren't that good, people. They're good. But the Ravens will beat them and Rice and Flacco will both be effective. Rice doesn't merit the very top status like usual, because yes -- the Jets are a good run defense. But don't make the mistake of moving Rice way down the charts because of that.

7. Ronnie Brown vs BUF -- Well, this is a tough one for me. I would so much rather include CJ Spiller or Jahvid Best or Arian Foster in the top 10. But I can't ignore Ronnie. Buffalo has a brutal run defense and Miami has one of the most prolific running offenses in the game. The big problem is Ricky Williams acting as the vulture for Brown's carries. Still, Brown is the top option and I'll treat him that way for now.

8. Ryan Mathews vs KC -- Like with Rivers, I'm not impressed by KC's defense. And this is Mathews' chance to shine. He's a rookie, he's atop the depth chart, and he's a solid runner. It's a make-or-break performance for alot of fantasy players. If I were a betting man, I'd say he performs well.

9. Rashard Mendenhall vs ATL -- Big Ben is suspended. Mendenhall is now their best option offensively. He's a powerful runner and he has shown stints of what he can be when healthy. He gets off on the right foot in week one against a Falcons defense that we New Englanders saw torched by the running game this preseason.

10. Jamaal Charles vs SD -- A lot of rankings are bumping Charles way lower. I still think he's an elite back and the Chargers defense doesn't scare me away from a top ten ticket for Charles. He's dynamic and lightning quick. A poor (but not too poor) man's Chris Johnson. Big play ability. I'll take my chances on a guy like that.

Can Calvin put it together this year?

Wide Receivers, Week 1.


1. Andre Johnson vs IND -- I mentioned that Schaub's success will ride on Johnson this week. I think Johnson gets his numbers. Houston's other receivers might be very quiet, but Andre Johnson will be an impact player against that Indy D which gave up more receptions than any NFL defense last season.

2. Marques Colston vs MIN -- Brees will light up the Vikes, and Colston will be the biggest beneficiary. He was quiet at times last season. He'll have a bigger year this time around. Super Bowl behind them, the Saints will look to move forward and improve on things they didn't perfect before. Colston's consistency is one of those things. It will start on Thursday night.

3. Calvin Johnson vs CHI -- The Bears went from being the league's shutdown defense to quite a subpar squad back there. Calvin Johnson is one of the most talented receivers in the league. This is the year Stafford connects on the next level with Calvin. It starts this week.

4. Randy Moss vs CIN -- We saw Brady connect on one huge deep ball this preseason to Moss. Expect more of that. There's been a lot of criticism about Randy's contract comments. That will all be forgotten after this duo opens up the can of whoop-ass on Sunday afternoon.

5. Miles Austin vs WAS -- I believe Romo will have a big day against the 'Skins, and Austin will be his primary target as usual. He emerged immensely last season, and he's now the top wideout on a prolific passing attack. That's a formula for success.

6. Larry Fitzgerald vs STL -- Against a better defense, I might be concerned with Derek Anderson at QB for Fitz. But against the Rams, I'm not concerned about much of anything offensively. Fitz will perform like the pro-bowler he is, and he'll actually help Derek Anderson look like something of a pro-bowler himself. Maybe.

7. Greg Jennings vs PHI -- I mentioned how much I like Aaron Rodgers this year. Jennings is his go-to guy. No reason that won't be the case once again. Expect a solid day between the duo that so many fantasy players find themselves snatching up.

8. Steve Smith (CAR) vs NYG -- Steve Smith lost a lot of fans last year, and many jumped on the wagon of the guy with the same name over in New York. Well, even with a new quarterback, Smith should have success this week against a shaky Giants secondary. It was what prevented the G-men from becoming contenders year. Smith can exploit that in week one.

9. Reggie Wayne vs HOU -- I'm not big on Peyton, but Reggie always gets his numbers. Even though I don't see this being a huge game for him, it might be ignorant to suggest he can't still be the impact player he always has been. I'll put him in the top 10, but I'm not completely sold on Wayne.

10. Brandon Marshall vs BUF -- Perhaps one of the biggest sleepers out there. Marshall? Sleeper? Well, he is. A lot of people are writing him off because he's in Miami with Chad Henne. The fact is, Henne throws a good ball and Marshall is one of the most gifted receivers in the league. The guy caught 22 passes in a game last year. He's a bona fide #1 wideout. Against an iffy Buffalo D, I'll take my chances on that one.


Week 1 Winner Predictions


Saints 31, Vikings 20.
Dolphins 17, Bills 13.
Bears 27, Lions 19.
Titans 30, Raiders 13.
Patriots 28, Bengals 10.
Giants 23, Panthers 21.
Falcons 24, Steelers 17.
Buccaneers 29, Browns 21.
Broncos 26, Jaguars 23.
Texans 24, Colts 23.
Cardinals 30, Rams 17.
Packers 34, Eagles 14.
Niners 26, Seahawks 7.
Cowboys 28, Redskins 17.
Ravens 27, Jets 19.
Chargers 33, Chiefs 21.


That's all I got. Let's see how all of my predictions turn out once the weekend is over and every NFL team has played their opener.

Update -- I went 11-5 in the winners predictions, which isn't bad but isn't great. As for the positional picks, some were in the ballpark and others were a bit off. Oh well. You win some you lose some, right?