Why History Won't Repeat for B's

The more things change, the more they stay the same. Here we are, one year after the beginning of last year's second round debacle, and the situations are eerily similar. In the 2010 playoffs, the Bruins beat Buffalo in Round 1 and took a commanding 3-0 series lead over the Flyers in the semi-finals. We all know what happened in the rest of that series so I won't repeat it here. In this year's playoffs, the Bruins won a nail-biting game 7 against Montreal with Nathan Horton's clutch goal.

Today, they have that same 3-0 lead over the Flyers and are hoping to wrap up the series tomorrow night at the Garden. Already the nay-sayers have come out, drawing comparisons to last year's series and claiming the Bruins might blow the lead again. A few words come to mind here, but I'll some up those claims with just one word: ridiculous. The 2011 Boston Bruins are NOT the same team they were last year. If you watched the first 3 games of the series then you know that. If you take a look at the roster then you know that. Allow me to ease your minds and give you a few reasons why the Bruins will move on to the Conference Finals.

1. Healthy Roster

The Bruins aren't dealing with the loss of key players due to injury like last year. David Krejci has been excellent in this series, but we all remember what happened last year. He got hurt in game 4 last year, and his injury is one of the biggest reasons the B's lost the series. With 5 goals and 4 assists, he's had a tremendous playoffs so far despite the Flyers trying to knock him off his game. He'll continue to play well and have an impact in all zones as long as he stays healthy. Dennis Seidenberg also got hurt before the playoffs last year and his speed and skills were missed. Many people criticize his defensive end play but he has steadily improved over the cource of the playoffs and at times had been our best d-man. His puck-moving skills were missed last years but he's here now and ready to play.

2. Different Flyers Team

This is also a different team that the Bruins are facing as well. Speedy winger Simon Gagne (who scored four goals on us in last year's series) is on the Lightning now. He was a constant scoring threat last year and now with him gone it's one less thing to worry about. Chris Pronger is also a year older, and although he is still a feared defenseman, he's battling with injuries as well. He missed game 3 and even if he returns to play tomorrow, he won't be 100% and the Bruins will continue to take advantage of that. Jeff Carter, perhaps the most offensively skilled forward on the Flyers, missed games 1 and 2 and he clearly wasn't completely ready to play either. The Flyers are a strong team, but not strong enough to come back from this deficit.

3. New Faces

The Bruins' roster contains a lot of familiar faces, but there a lot of new players that Chiarelli has brought in since last year. Besides the return of Krejci and Seidenberg from injury last year, he's aquired a few new players both via trades, free agency, and our own farm system. Nathan Horton and Greg Campbell were brought in from Florida and have had a tremendous impact in the playoffs. Nathan Horton has 5 goals this playoffs, including two OT game winners. Campbell has been a very reliable defensive player on the PK and centers the energetic fourth line. Chris Kelly from Ottowa and Rich Peverly from have developed great chemistry with Michael Ryder on the third line and bring a constant scoring threat. Tomas Kaberle is a very skilled defenseman, and although he is not producing offensively as much as we expected, has improved out puck-moving abilities as a team and makes our power play better. Finally, Brad Marchand has earned his roster spot from the beginning of the season and has excelled in every facet of the game, being one of the B's best players night after night.

4. Won't Get Fooled Again

If nothing else can be taken out of last year's debacle, it's a learning experience. Claude Julien and his squad took a hard learned lesson and used it to build on this year's team. Just watching the games, you can see that they're playing with an intensity seldom seen before. They're scoring goals, finishing checks, winning one on one battles, and playing pristine defense. If you watched Game 3 then you know what I'm talking about. They just did everything right. They're determined not to let it happen again. They're confident, aggressive, having fun, and most importantly, they're winning.

5. Goaltending
Look, I'm not blaming Tuukka Rask for last year's implosion. In fact, he played great last year, even during the playoffs. But Tim Thomas is stellar. Save after save, he stands on his head and keeps his team in the game. He's a lock for the Vezina (knock on wood) and there isn't a goalie alive that I'd rather have between the pipes right now than Tim Thomas. Look down the other end and you'll see a revolving door in the Flyer's net. They've already used 3 different goalies so far this playoffs, including Michael Leighton, Sergei Bobrovsky, and Brian Boucher. The Bruins have absolutely embarrassed Boucher and Bobrovsky so far, and the Flyers will continue to struggle there. Defense wins championships, and a good defense starts with a great goalie. Bruins got it. Flyer's don't. It's that simple.

See ya soon, Lightning.
  

UB Writers MLB Predictions

Opening Day is finally upon us. Even though the Sox have to wait an extra day, several teams have kicked off their regular season schedules. If you're a baseball fan, you're smiling -- it's the greatest time of the year. Even for the casual sports fan here in Boston, this marks the best time of the year, too. Bruins and Celtics heading for their playoff schedules (playoff tickets anyone?) and the Sox kicking off their long tourney aimed at a World Series title. Nonetheless, three UB writers, including myself, have made their full set of player predictions for the upcoming season. We'll include a team prediction sometime soon as well, with standings and postseason predictions. But for now, take a look at the future of this season according to DRob, Average Joe, and Burga.

30 Teams, 30 Predictions

This is the first of hopefully many preseason blogs that I'll write before the games get underway. The premise is simple, I'll list each of the 30 MLB teams and make a prediction for a player on that team for the upcoming season. It might be predicting a breakout, or a bust, or somewhere in between. Some might seem pretty mild, whereas others might just seem crazy. But hey, that's why we call them predictions. Comments are welcome if you wish to address one of my predictions or make a couple of your own.

My Predictions:

Baltimore Orioles: Matt Wieters finally has the breakout season we've been waiting for, posting a 81/28/90 stat line to go along with a .298 average and finishes second among fantasy catchers, behing Joe Mauer.

Boston Red Sox: Adrian Gonzalez has his best season yet at Fenway, hitting .304 with 40 homers and 118 RBIs, good enough for the AL MVP.

New York Yankees: Mariano Rivera finally lets age catch up to him, blowing 4 saves in his first 15 appearances with and ERA over 5.00. He loses the starting job to Rafael Soriano by June and announces his retirement at the end of the season.

Tampa Bay Rays: David Price, who was among the top of the league for Runs Scored per start, sees some of that luck go away this year. Hitters start to figure him out, and although he has flashes of brilliance, he finished with a 11-10 record with a 4.11 ERA.

Toronto Blue Jays: Jose Bautista starts off hot again, making people think maybe last year wasn't a fluke after all. He'll cool down but finish with 32 homers and a respectable .270 average.

Chicago White Sox: Adam Dunn will flourish in the windy city, seeing a very favorable park and the best lineup hes played in in years. He hits 42 homers with 112 RBIs. Juan Pierre will also set his career high with 70 steals.

Cleveland Indians: Chris Perez will finish the season with 38 saves and a 2.08 ERA, making him one of the better closers to own in fantasy.

Detroit Tigers: Max Scherzer continues the success that he had in the second half of last year, finishing the season sporting a 15-7 record with 212 strikeouts and a 3.07 ERA.

Kansas City Royals: Billy Butler will take a small step forward, but not quite have the breakout season everyones been looking for. He'll put up another great average while hitting 25 homers, solid production at the deep first base position.

Minnesota Twins: Joe Nathan will regain his dominance, recording 43 saves and earning a healthy 2.33 ERA. Those who question his injury status will regret it.

Los Angeles Angels: Jered Weaver will regeress after his huge year, failing to break 200 K's again and winning only 12 games as the Angels' offense will struggle.

Texas Rangers: Mike Napoli, who will rotate at catcher, first base, and DH, will post career highs across the board with 30 homers, 64 runs, 72 RBIS, and .273 average. There's no way he won't flourish at a hitter-friendly field amidst a studded lineup.

Oakland Athletics: Brett Anderson, who was dominant before falling to injury, will regain form and be a Cy Young candidate with 12 wins, 2.74 ERA and 193 K's.

Seattle Mariners: Remember Erik Bedard? He's looking healthy and has been excelling in spring training. He's finally going to justify the package the Mariners gave up to get him by winning 13 games and posting a 2.69 ERA with 201 K's.

Atlanta Braves: Jason Heyward suffers from a sophomore slump, batting just .245 in the first half of the season with 11 homers. Watch out for his second half though, when he becomes one of the hottest players in baseball and doesn't look back.

Florida Marlins: Mike Stanton, who might struggle early on after coming back from a minor quad injury, will show everyone that the hype on him is for real, finishing with a monster 36 home runs and a solid .275 average.

New York Mets: In his contract year, Jose Reyes will play like a beast and earn a monster payday. He'll hit .300, score 115 runs, and steal 42 bases. This is partly depended on a healthy Mets lineup but I have confidence in them and Reyes will benefit from it.

Philadelphia Phillies: With injuries to half their starting lineup, the Phillies offense might struggle a bit. Cole Hamels will be traded halfway through the season for some offensive pop to make up for their injuries. Lidge comes back healthy and saves 41 games.

Washington Nationals: Jayson Werth, coming off a HUGE pay day and going from a World Series team to the lowly Nationals; will have a down year. Look for 22 homers and a .271 average in the disappointing season for Jayson.

Chicago Cubs: Aramis Ramirez, heading into a contract year as well, will finally stay healthy and put up monster numbers that mirrors his 2006 season, hitting 34 homers, knocking in 108 RBIs and boasting a .304 average.

Cincinnati Reds: Remember Carlos Gonzalez last year? This year it'll be Jay Bruce. He ended last year batting .306 in the second half and hit 15 homers in the last 34 games. Sound familiar? Look for Bruce to hit at least 30 homers this year and pushing 100 RBIs.

Houston Astros: This will be a productive year for the Astros' outfield. Hunter Pence will take the next step, hitting 30 homers with 100 RBIs, Carlos Lee will have a comeback year with 28 homers and 95 RBIs with a good average, and Michael Bourn will steal at least 60.

Milwaukee Brewers: And the good get better. Ryan Braun will post his best stats in his career, hitting .326, score 115 runs and knock in 120. And, for the first time ever, he will reach the 40 homer plateau, earning the NL MVP award.

Pittsburgh Pirates: Jose Tabata will take over the starting role and steal 45 bases, good for fourth in the league. This kid is fast.

St. Louis Cardinals: Pujols, Pujols, Pujols. Contract year. The machine will do it all. 50 homers? Sure. 120 RBIs? Easy. Batting average of .340? Check. He reveals that he actually is, in fact, a robot? Possibly...

Arizona Diamondback: Justin Upton takes another big step, popping 35 homers and stealing 25 bases. He'll struggle a little bit with average, hitting .265, but will finish among the top 20 players in fantasy baseball.

Colorado Rockies: Look for CarGo to regress a little, hitting .300 with 26 homers. He'll be very slow out of the gate, coming back down to earth from last season. When Tulowitski's undoubted power surge comes, Gonzalez will go along for the ride.

LA Dodgers: Clayton Kershaw will be the best pitcher in baseball. With a 17-4 record, 226 K's, 2.39 ERA and a 1.12 WHIP, he'll finish in the top five players in fantasy baseball and win the NL Cy Young.

San Diego Padres: Ryan Ludwick will give us another taste of his '08 season, hitting 32 Homers and knocking in 95. However, his average won't top .280. He'll be a solid 3rd outfielder in typical fantasy formats.

San Francisco Giants: Both Jonathon Sanchez and Matt Cain will finish above Tim Lincecum. With Lincecum's struggles last year and the pressure he puts on his arm, he's bound to hit a wall eventually and I say it happens this year.
 

Fantasy Baseball: Starting Pitchers

Opening Day is within 3 weeks. The weather is warming up and the snow is finally melting. It's getting closer to the pursuit of the 2011 world championship, so our preseason rankings need to wrap up soon. With Fantasy Drafts ongoing, Burga and I are hoping our input about each position is helping even a little bit. Here's our take on the Starting Pitchers for 2011.

Burga’s Rankings:
Roy Halladay
Felix Hernandez
Tim Lincecum
Cliff Lee
Jon Lester
CC Sabathia
Clayton Kershaw
Ubaldo Jimenez
Josh Johnson
Justin Verlander
Cole Hamels
David Price
Tommy Hanson
Zack Greinke
Chris Carpenter
Franciso Liriano
Mat Latos
Dan Haren
Roy Oswalt
Jered Weaver

• Roy Halladay tops both of our rankings and with good reason. He’s got everything you could want in a pitcher. Dominant stuff, experience, a potent offense behind him, and he’s outside the AL Beast now. If Felix Hernandez could only get a better offense behind him he would challenge the Doc for number 1, but right now it belongs to Halladay.
• Zack Greinke would be a sure-fire top ten option, playing for a much stronger team with an offense led by Ryan Braun and Prince Fielder. However, as recently stated, he’s suffering from a rib injury that he got playing a pick-up basketball. He’ll miss about a month, so he falls a few spots in the rankings accordingly and he’ll likely get off to a slow start after missing most of Spring Training.
• Josh Johnson and Chris Carpenter share similar stories when ranking them. When healthy and producing, they’re as good as any pitchers in baseball. Period. However, both come with injury concern. Carpenter had Tommy-John surgery a few years back and rebounded to a fantastic season. With Wainwright out for the season, he’ll need to be the man in St. Louis for the Cardinals to contend. Johnson’s season ended early last year with surgery, but he’s reportedly healthy for now. The upside is great, but draft with caution.
• Jered Weaver is one of the most underrated starters in fantasy baseball. Last year, he won 13 games, sported a 3.01 ERA and a fantastic 233 strikeouts. He’s being drafted much lower than his stats deserve and if you can land him as your number 2, your pitching staff is in great shape.

Average Joe's Rankings:
Roy Halladay
Felix Hernandez
Cliff Lee
Josh Johnson
Jon Lester
Tim Lincecum
CC Sabathia
Ubaldo Jimenez
Clay Buchholz
David Price
Zack Greinke
Clayton Kershaw
Mat Latos
Justin Verlander
Chris Carpenter
Cole Hamels
Matt Cain
Tommy Hanson
Francisco Liriano
Trevor Cahill

• Roy Halladay is the best pitcher in baseball right now. Arguably the first 8 pitchers can make a case for that claim (if Halladay wasn’t pitching, that is). He works quickly, he’s accurate, his array of pitches is superb. He’s the best. Go for him first.
• A lot would argue Buchholz is high on this list. Heck, Burga didn’t include him. But if he had pitched a full season, he’d be right in the hunt for the 2010 Cy Young. After rebounding from a couple rough years, and finally showing his real potential, he could keep moving up this list.
• Greinke is out. Latos has had a rough start to Spring Training. But don’t ignore them. If you can wait a little, however, try to take another pitcher over them.
• Hamels is the third starter from Philly on the list. I think he’ll put up good numbers, but be careful. The Red Sox arguably had 3 starters on this list last year (Beckett, Lester, Lackey), and 2 out of the 3 underperformed. Proceed with caution, especially after Hamels rough 2009 campaign, lacking motivation.
• Trevor Cahill quietly had an outstanding season in 2010. With a somewhat better team out in Oakland this year, Cahill may get some more wins to support his solid ERA (not that an 18-8 year is a bad thing at all).
  

Fantasy Baseball: Outfield

In fantasy baseball teams, outfield provides a unique position due to its obvious depth and the fact that you can find serviceable and helpful players even in the later rounds. After round 15 you can draft outfielders who will hit .300 or 30 home runs or steal 40 bases, which you can’t say about any other position. For the first time since our rankings started, Burga and I have had substantially different rankings, so take a closer look and see who we like this year.

Burga's Rankings:
Ryan Braun
Carlos Gonzalez
Carl Crawford
Josh Hamilton
Matt Holliday
Matt Kemp
Nelson Cruz
Justin Upton
Andre Ethier
Shin-Soo Choo
Jason Heyward
Jacoby Ellsbury
Jayson Werth
Jay Bruce
Andrew McCutcheon
Alex Rios
Hunter Pence
Ichiro Suzuki
Chris Young
BJ Upton

• Finally, a little bit of differentiation between our positional rankings. Plenty of people would prefer Carlos Gonzalez over Ryan Braun, and I’ve even seen mock drafts where CarGo went first overall, believe it or not. However, Braun is one of the sure things in fantasy and he’s been consistently one of the top players in baseball. Gonzalez had a surreal season last year, but I’ll need to see him do it again before taking him as the first outfielder off the board.
• The only thing that prevents Nelson Cruz from being as high as a 2nd round pick is injury concerns. Like his teammate, Josh Hamilton, when Cruz is healthy he can put up MVP numbers and he showed us that last year. If he stays off the DL he’ll reward owners kindly with good numbers minus SBs.
• There are many young outfielders that could reach elite status this year, headlined by Jason Heyward, who showed us a glimpse of the excellence that lies in his future. Don’t sleep on guys like Jay Bruce, Mike Stanton, Andrew McCutcheon, Colby Rasmus, and Drew Stubbs, especially in keeper leagues.
• Jacoby Ellsbury was a 2nd round pick in 2010 before falling to injuries. When he’s being drafted in the mid rounds this year, he could turn into one of this year’s draft bargains. However, with Crawford in Boston Ellsbury might shift to the 9 spot, which might limit numbers just a bit.

Average Joe's Rankings:
Carlos Gonzalez
Carl Crawford
Josh Hamilton
Ryan Braun
Matt Holliday
Shin-Soo Choo
Andre Ethier
Jacoby Ellsbury
Justin Upton
Nelson Cruz
Jayson Heyward
Ichiro Suzuki
Andrew McCutchen
Vernon Wells
Jayson Werth
Matt Kemp
Chris Young
Corey Hart
Alex Rios
Hunter Pence

• Braun drops on my list based on last year’s numbers. If he has a solid year, he can easily make a case to be the best OF in baseball again. But last year, Gonzalez was a triple crown/MVP candidate. He takes the top for me.
• Matt Kemp may seem quite low. However, he only had a .249 average last year, and was extremely unmotivated at times. He could bounce back; in fact you should probably expect him too. But choose wisely, because, as seen last year, if he’s not happy, you won’t be happy with his numbers.
• My Boston bias puts Jacoby Ellsbury fairly high. But do not forget that this guy is a year removed from a 70 steal season. If he’s healthy, he can easily do it again. Possible steal in some leagues (although most of you are Boston people, so I’m sure some of you will see him taken far too prematurely in the first round.
• I’ve got Vernon Wells and Corey Hart on my list, contrary to Burga’s (Jay Bruce and BJ Upton). Hart had his career year in 2010, after a terrible 2009 campaign. Wells saw his power numbers return to 2006 form, and a change of scenery to Anaheim may help him try to maintain.

Fantasy Baseball: Shortstop

Today, Burga and I will finish off the infield and take a look at shortstop. This was a position that once sent 5 of it's kind to the American League team at the All-Stars game (Alex Rodriguez, Derek Jeter, Nomar Garciaparra, Miguel Tejeda, and Omar Vizquel). The turnover of new top shortstops has arrived, and they reside in the National League. Let's see what we've got.

Burga’s Rankings
Hanley Ramirez
Troy Tulowitzki
Jose Reyes
Jimmy Rollins
Elvis Andrus
Derek Jeter
Stephen Drew
Alexei Ramirez
Raphael Furcal
Alex Gonzalez

• Similar rankings again between Average Joe and I. We both have Hanley ranked over Tulo, but you’ll see plenty of owners choosing Tulowitski as the first short shop off the board. Tulo’s slight injury history and inconsistency throughout the year makes him more of a 1A to Hanley.
• Jose Reyes is healthy and in a contract year, so the makings of a big year might be in order. Batting atop the Mets order, a lot of his production depends on how players like Jason Bay and Carlos Beltran respond this year. Upside of over 100 runs and 50 steals, making him a great play at Shortstop.
• Derek Jeter is as consistent as they come, and although he’s getting up in age he still plays in a loaded Yankee lineup and a hitter-friendly park. Look for him to continue his success and consistent reliability throughout the year.
• Furcal got off to a scorching start last year, scoring 16 runs and 8 steals in April. The Dodger’s face offensive struggles ahead, but batting in front of talented guys like Ethier and Kemp he should get plenty of chances to be a good fantasy shortstop with solid numbers across the board.

Average Joe's Rankings:
Hanley Ramirez
Troy Tulowitzki
Jose Reyes
Derek Jeter
Jimmy Rollins
Stephen Drew
Elvis Andrus
Alexei Ramirez
Rafael Furcal
Starlin Castro

Key Points:
• If Tulowitzki plays like he did at the end of last season, it will make the best shortstop debate more clear. Hanley had a down year for his standards, but should still be your first choice. And Reyes had a nice bounce back year, so look for him after that.
• Jeter and Rollins had down years. Rollins was injured, while Jeter had the lowest average of his entire career. Expect their numbers to bounce back a little, but be careful; Jeter is out of his prime, and Rollins’ numbers have dropped significantly since his career year in 2007.
• Alexei Ramirez is a solid shortstop and player. He’s averaged 18 home runs and a .283 average in his 3 years in the Big Leagues. He’s only 29, so he’s got some good years ahead of him.
• If Rafael Furcal can stay healthy, you should be able to rely on him for some solid numbers. But it appears his best days are behind him, somewhere in Atlanta, Georgia. He’s only played 2 full seasons in his 5 year stay in Los Angeles.
• This guy could suffer from the sophomore slump, but Starlin Castro put together a solid season in 2010. Keep an eye on him in the future. He might go undrafted, but if he’s hanging around late and you need a shortstop, take a gamble.
  

Fantasy Baseball: Third Base

It's getting toward the end of the month. Burga and I have been slacking somewhat on our rankings (college), but we will get them done. Today we look at the hot corner, where there are some names that probably wouldn't be on this list last year, whether it's injury, position switch, or a breakout year. Nevertheless, some of these players could be the best hitter on your team, so don't let them get by you! Here's our take on the position.

Average Joe's Rankings:
Evan Longoria
David Wright
Ryan Zimmerman
Alex Rodriguez
Kevin Youkilis
Jose Bautista
Adrian Beltre
Casey McGehee
Mark Reynolds
Aramis Ramirez

Key Points:
• Longoria has established himself as the best at this position for certain. But look out for Zimmerman. His average has increased significantly over the past 4 seasons. Without missing time like last year, his numbers across the board should increase. David Wright goes above him because he’s the more proven player.

• A-Rod is on the back nine of his career. His average is dropping, and his OPS in 2010 was his lowest since 1997 with Seattle. But he just had his 13th straight season of at least 30 home runs and 100 RBIs. He’s not going anywhere soon, but if it’s a keeper league, beware of that age.
• I am fully expecting Jose Bautista to fall off the map again. Yet I ranked him 6th, largely in part that he was arguably the most productive player last year in all of baseball. So, I’m giving him the preseason benefit of the doubt, but be cautious selecting him.
• McGehee eclipsed the 100 RBI mark in his first full MLB season last year, to go with a .285 average. At 28, expect improvement. Sandoval was tough to oversee for this list, as he is in top shape this spring. But in 2010, he did not help the World Series Champions as much as he did in 2009.

Burga’s Rankings:
Evan Longoria
Ryan Zimmerman
David Wright
Alex Rodriguez
Kevin Youkilis
Jose Bautista
Adrian Beltre
Aramis Ramirez
Mark Reynolds
Pablo Sandoval

Key Points:
• Some might wonder why Zimmerman is ranked higher than Wright or even A-Rod, but I’m extremely high on him this year. Another year old, he’s got the tools to take his game to the next level. Washington’s franchise player (Steven Strasburg and Bryce Harper are pretty good, too) should look for career highs in all categories this year and challenge Longoria for the number one spot if he stays healthy.
• Alex Rodriguez is a top 10, maybe top 5 player in all of fantasy baseball when he’s healthy, which he appears to be now. Injury history is the only thing that puts him so far down the list. He reported to training camp lighter and with lower body fat, so if he stays healthy he’ll be the cornerstone of your fantasy team.
• Jose Bautista is probably the biggest question mark coming into the season. I don’t think anyone expects a repeat of last year’s 54 homer season, but 30-35 home runs with around 100 RBIs still makes this guy a great option at third base.
• Pablo Sandoval went from being one of the best breakout players in 2009 to one of the biggest busts last year. He reportedly has dropped 40 pounds in this offseason, and he’s surrounded by a championship team so if the pieces fall together he could get his average back up over .300 and help in every category minus stolen bases.
 

Fantasy Baseball: Second Base

In the past, second base has typically been a pretty thin position in the fantasy world. However, over the last few years some of them have emerged among the top hitters in baseball. Two second baseman should go in the first round of the draft. Three more will be gone by round 5. It has become a very deep position and instead of a weak spot on your team, they can be a great source of stats just like any other player you draft. Burga and I compared our rankings, let’s see what we came up with.

Burga’s Rankings:
Robinson Cano
Chase Utley
Dustin Pedroia
Dan Uggla
Ian Kinsler
Brandon Phillips
Rickie Weeks
Martin Prado
Aaron Hill
Kelly Johnson

Key Points:
• It’s interesting that Joe and I have VERY similar rankings here. We both have the same first 7 people (with 6 and 7 switched), and he surprisingly ranked Kinsler as low as I did. Kinsler is as supreme talent as any second baseman in the game. But his health concerns make him a very high risk/high reward draft pick and I’ll stay away from him. I’d much rather skip on Kinsler in round 3 and take Uggla in round 5.
• Robinson Cano should repeat, if not improve last years numbers hitting in the middle of the studded Yankee’s lineup. Utley should be close, however, so don’t rule him out just because he was injured last year. Look for similar numbers with Cano getting an advantage in power and Utley an advantage in SBs.
• Aaron Hill should be available in the mid rounds, maybe 8 or 9, and if he can put last year behind him he may prove to be one of the steals of the draft. Is he really the 36 homerun, 108 RBI guy of ’09? Or is he the .205 hitter we saw last year? It’ll be interesting to see what Hill does this year.
• One person I left out was the Oriole’s Brian Roberts. When healthy, he’s a great source of Runs, SBs, and a solid average. However, he’s getting up there in age (33) and was limited to 59 games last year. However, if he’s healthy and bats atop the O’s studded new lineup featuring Mark Reynolds, Derek Lee, and Vlad Guerrero, he may be a top 5 second baseman again this year.

Average Joe's Rankings:
Robinson Cano
Chase Utley
Dustin Pedroia
Dan Uggla
Ian Kinsler
Rickie Weeks
Brandon Phillips
Brian Roberts
Martin Prado
Kelly Johnson

Key Points:
• The top 5 are definitely the elite players at second. Cano was tops in the AL last summer, while Uggla was the best in the National League. But you should expect Utley, Pedroia, and Kinsler to all bounce back from injury-plagued seasons.
• Weeks and Phillips could go either way (up or down) this list. Weeks had a breakout year last year, while Phillips did not drive in as many runs as in previous years. But they should both have solid campaigns, nonetheless.
• Kelly Johnson probably won’t hit as many home runs as he did last year. But he is young, so don’t expect a significant drop from his career year numbers of 2010. Martin Prado has showed steady improvement each year in the league (as the number of games he’s appeared in increases). Expect nothing different this year.
• Brian Roberts, when healthy, is a solid second baseman. With a bunch of new faces in Baltimore, I expect him to have a solid season, rebounding from injuries in 2010, and to help this new Orioles team have a chance in the AL East.
  

Fantasy Baseball Preview: First Basemen

Today, Burga and I take a look at the sluggers of the MLB: First basemen. These guys are generally going to be your Fantasy Team’s big bat. It’s a very strong position, as several other players could state their claim to make this list. In the end, here is what we got. Note: Kevin Youkilis was purposely kept off this list due to his impending move across the diamond to third.

Burga's Rankings:
Albert Pujols
Miguel Cabrera
Joey Votto
Adrian Gonzalez
Mark Teixiera
Ryan Howard
Prince Fielder
Kendry Morales
Justin Morneau
Adam Dunn

Key Points:
• With Pujols still being the consensus number 1, it’ll be interesting to see who finishes behind him in the rankings. Average Joe has Votto over Miggy, whereas I had them the other way around. I believe Miggy has a greater chance to surpass Pujols, especially in a better lineup than Votto, and he’s been around a little longer which gives them a slight edge over Votto in my book.
• Though Average Joe and I have the same players consisting our top 3, don’t be the one who underestimates Adrian Gonzalez on draft day. Playing in a MUCH better hitters park, in the middle of a studded lineup, this guy should be in the running for AL MVP and has the chance to unseat the first 3 if he hits the ball like people expect him to in Fenway.
• Joe has Justin Morneau 4 spots higher than me. If Morneau stays healthy then Average Joe might prove me wrong here by seasons end. However, Morneau’s history proves otherwise and he was limited to 81 games last year. This guy can rake with the best of them when healthy but in the meantime I’ll take a less risky pick here.
• Adam Dunn is always a 40 home run threat and one of my favorite players. His consistency makes him a great addition to any fantasy team and, unlike some other power hitters, his average won’t kill you. Being upgraded from Washington to Chicago will give him a hitter-friendly park and a stronger lineup, where he could thrive in his best year yet.

Average Joe's Rankings:
Albert Pujols
Joey Votto
Miguel Cabrera
Adrian Gonzalez
Justin Morneau
Mark Teixiera
Ryan Howard
Prince Fielder
Paul Konerko
Kendry Morales

Key Points:
• First base is an extremely top-heavy position, in that all ten of these players could be on an all-star team. Votto did win MVP last summer, but Pujols still is superior to Cincinnati’s first basemen. If you have the first spot, and you want the best baseball player overall, take Pujols
• Caution: Boston Bias. Cabrera is the best AL first basemen, but if Gonzalez can wrap some home runs around Pesky’s poll, and live off of opposite field homers and wall-ball doubles, don’t be surprised if their numbers are pretty similar.
• Justin Morneau and Kendry Morales should both bounce back from their injuries. And when healthy, Morneau is an MVP candidate (he already has one). So don’t forget about them.
• On the same note, take Teixiera with caution. His April struggles could hurt your team, but in the end his numbers will be MVP-caliber.
• Konerko makes the list, a no-brainer for me. Yes, he is inconsistent; last season was the first time since 2006 that his average was above .300. But, at age 34, his 2010 OPS was the best of his career. This is the only positions where a guy who it .312 with 39 home runs is ranked 9th at that position.
  

Fantasy Baseball Preview: Catchers

Is it that time of year yet? No, not quite. There's still 10 days until players report for Spring Training, but that doesn't mean we can't start getting excited about Fantasy Baseball. For this preview, Burga and myself (Average Joe) co-authored the first of many articles in which we rank each position and a quick summary of our thoughts. Enjoy!

Burga’s Rankings
Joe Mauer
Victor Martinez
Brian McCann
Buster Posey
Carlos Santana
Miguel Montero
Mike Napoli
Kurt Suzuki
Geovanny Soto
Matt Weiters

Key Points:
• Mauer still has to be the number 1, but I think V-Mart is in for a big year in Detroit. He has plenty of lineup protection batting behind Miguel Cabrera and the rejuvenated Magglio Ordonez. He has always been a fantasy beast, and if he stays healthy he might be in for a career year.
• Some rankings have Posey as high as number 2. He certainly has that potential, but until he does it for a full year, I’ll take a proven stud over him. Will he suffer from a sophomore slump (or World Series hangover) and be a draft-day bust, or will he continue last year’s success and be an anchor on your team? Only time will tell.
• I have Carlos Santana a little higher than Joe. While Posey got all the hype last year, Santana put up similar stats until he was injured at Fenway. He is reported to be 100% healthy, and the Indians will certainly hitting in the middle of the lineup in order to win some games. He could put up a stat line that mirrors Posey’s and could be had 5+ rounds later on the draft.
• Watch out for Mike Napoli this year. Being on the Rangers, he has a chance to play at a hitter’s friendly park, hit in a studded lineup, and gets an opportunity to play the majority of starts, a thing he never did on the Angels. Simply put: the guy rakes. He has the potential to be a top 3 fantasy catcher this year.

Average Joe's Rankings
Joe Mauer
Buster Posey
Victor Martinez
Brian McCann
Kurt Suzuki
Mike Napoli
John Buck
Carlos Santana
Carlos Ruiz
Geovany Soto

Key Points:
• The top 4 are pretty obvious choices. Mauer is the cream of the crop, but Posey is looking to impose (pun intended) on that. Hopefully, the glory of a World Series championship does not get to his head.
• Victor will score your Fantasy team points, but don’t expect to actually see him behind the plate. He’ll benefit from not having to catch, though, so his numbers should escalate. If he's eligible, he's an excellent option at catcher
• Don’t expect Buck and Napoli’s power numbers to slip that far (if at all). They could both benefit from the change of scenery. Buck will also be in a slightly smaller ballpark (left-center and right-center), so that could work to his advantage.
• Buck is on my list because of his solid Stats from last year, in only 118 games. Add to that his new ballpark, as previously stated, and you've got yourself a solid option at catcher. Ruiz is there because, while he doesn’t put up the power numbers some of the other guys do, he was 4th among everyday catchers in batting average.

Fantasy Hockey Special: Goalies

For those of you who haven't been following the situation regarding goaltender Evgeni Nabokov, here's a little summary: After another dissapointing playoff withdrawal in 2010, Nabokov left the Sharks and the whole NHL behind to play in the KHL of Russia for a chance to play in his home land and maybe pocket a little more money. After a dissapointing stretch, Nabby was released from his team and began talking with scouts and GMs about returning to the NHL. The Red Wings, hoping to solidify their tandem, signed him to a minimun contract deal for the season but first he had to pass through the NHL's extremely complicated waiver system. Long story short, the Islander's claimed him and Nabokov, within his rights, is refusing to report to Long Island, expressing his wishes to play for a cup-contending team. Three possible scenarios can play out here: either he stays inactive until next season, he reports to play for the Isles, or the Islanders trade him to get a pick or two and he gets shipped to a better team. A frustrating situation for sure, and he even hung up on the Islander's GM.

What does this mean in fantasy terms? Well, Nabokov is potentially a top 5 tender in the league, depending on his physical condition and the team he ends up with. A dream scenario would be Washington or Philly, which would make him a fantasy must. Keep an eye on the situation.

NHL: 30 teams, 30 Stars

A quick look at the 30 teams in the National Hockey League and who has been the best player for them in the first half of the season.

Anaheim Ducks: Corey Perry. With the injuries to Getzlaf and the inconsistency of Ryan, Perry has been the leader of the team from the beginning. Point-per-game pace for this gritty forward has put him among the leagues most well-rounded players.

Atlanta Thrashers: Dustin Byfuglien. As a defenseman, he has lit the lamp 16 times already and added 25 assists, putting him in the lead for the Norris trophy. The Thrashers got more than their money's worth on this trade.

Boston Bruins: Tim Thomas. Everyone's surprised, but should we be? Tim Thomas isn't. The favorite for the Vezina trophy has posted surreal numbers thus far and has silenced the doubters once and for all.

Mid-Season Fantasy Hockey Awards

Halfway through the hockey season, the fantasy world has seen its share of surprises. Some players have been let-downs whereas others have far surpassed expectations. Let's take a look at who the Mid-Season fantasy awards go to.

MVP: Sydney Crosby

Any arguments here? First in Goals, second in assists, top-ten in every other category (except PIMs), and has taken his game to a whole new level. He dominated November and December with a point streak that lasted 25 games, in which he scored 24 goals and 26 assists. For those who drafted him, congratulations on getting a guy who's putting up Gretzky-like numbers. He's currently on pace for about 130 points and should continue to be the number one player in fantasy.

Runners up: Steven Stamkos, Tim Thomas

Fantasy Hockey Special: Forwards

Over 20 games into the season, it's officially time that you can cut bait with certain players and consider them "busts" if they're not producing yet. In contrast, there have been many surprise hot starts and many of them have died out, but a select few have kept up the pace and have emerged as top break-out candidates. Forwards are the offensive leaders of your teams, but it is a fickle position and has to be monitored carefully. Some players, like Kovalchuk and Spezza, have been off to slow starts but they're still worth owning and you should grab them if they're available. Some slow starts, however, are just too bad to ignore. Here are the Studs and Duds so far this fantasy season:

Fantasy Hockey: Defensemen

At this point in the season, it has become apparent that this season entails the emergence of a new generation of fantasy-elite blue liners. Many youngsters are taking over as franchise defensemen for NHL teams and several of them are helpful in fantasy, such as P.K. Subban, Erik Karlsson, John Carlson, and a few others. For those of you lucky enough to draft Dustin Byfuglien hoping to get solid points and PIM have been rewarded countless times over with a point-per-game pace as well as 28 PIM, 10 PPP and 76 shots. He has been the best defenseman in fantasy so far and continues at a torrid pace, with RW eligibility to boot. Here's who caught my eye this week:

Fantasy Hockey: Goalie Watch

This hockey season so far has consisted of many surprises and dissapointments, especially in the goalie position. Some goalies have surpasses expectations, some have been major let-downs, and some have been stuck in a fantasy owner's worst nightmare: a timeshare in which he only gets limited starts due to splitting time with another goalie. Let's take a closer look at who's caught my eye so far.

Jon Quick, LA Kings.

As I stated in my first blog, rookie phenom would be waiting in the wings to take over for Quick and Quick would have to play fantastic in order to keep Bernier sidelined. He has done just that. being arguably the best fantasy goalie so far, he shows no signs of slowing down on the red-hot Kings and will likely remain at the top of the pack.

Fantasy Hockey: Month in Review

Well folks, we've officially seen another month of hockey come and gone. The season commenced in October and what an exciting month it's been. Already we've seen highlight-reel goals, bone-crushing checks, and unbelievable saves by the best hockey players in the world. In the realm of fantasy hockey, there has been much to be excited about and just as much to be dissapointed by. We'll dig a little deeper and see who have been the biggests surprises and busts in the game so far.

Fantasy Hockey Special: Forwards

We're at the end of October the suprises thus far in the Hockey world are abundant. Patrick Sharp leads the league in goals, the Michael Liles has 11 assists, and Tim Thomas has an UNREAL 6-0 record stopping 182 of 185 shots. Every one of these guys will be fantasy mainstays this season, though none are likely to keep up that pace. Let's take a look at some forwards that are worth noting thus far.

Fantasy Hockey Special: Defensemen

There are many different philosophies in fantasy hockey when it comes to defensemen. Some owners put great value into them and draft one in the first 3 or 4 rounds to snag the elite ones, and often have 3 by round 10. Others like to fill theirs out in the mid to late rounds with solid, consistent defenders. Whatever your strategy is, it's important to keep track of which defensemen are playing well. If you can get 50-55 points out of a a defense slot on your fantasy team where another owner is only getting 35-40, then you'll often find yourself ahead of the competition.

Let's take a look at who's caught my eye so far:

Alex Goligoski and Kris Letang, Pittsburgh Penguins

It's pretty hard not to be impressed with the start these two have had for the Penguins. When Sergei Gonchar left, Pittsburgh lost one of the best powerplay quarterbacks in the league and the job was up for grabs. So far, Goligoski has overtaken that role with 3 goals and 6 points already and the top fantasy d-man so far. Letang has 4 assists and 17 PIM, so if your league counts penalty minutes he's a worthy asset.

Fantasy Hockey Special: Goalie Watch

My name's Tim Wirzburger, and I'm the new Fantasy Hockey Specialist for UB. This is my first of hopefully many blogs about the subject, so feedback and criticism are much appreciated!


Perhaps more than any other position in fantasy hockey, goalies can make or break your season. Draft the right ones, and you'll be on the fast track to winning the championship. Draft the wrong one, however, and your fantasy aspirations will dissapear faster than you can say "Gary Bettman." It's important to keep an eye on those NHL teams that have questionable situations in net. Goalie is a dynamic position and some teams change theirs several times throughout the season. Every year, goalies breakout from no-names to fantasy stars; just ask Steve Mason, Craig Anderson, and Jimmy Howard. It's also important to recognize which goalies might lose their jobs. Here are a couple goalie situations that are worth watching this season:


Boston: Last year, the Bruins made the long-awaited shift to the future-superstar Tuukka Rask, acquired from Toronto via trade in 2005. Tim Thomas, coming off a Vezina-winning season, immediately felt pressure from Rask's stellar performance. Thomas did not lose the job as much as Rask won it. Coming into the 2010 season, Rask is expected to make the majority of the starts, but 2 games into the season, Rask stands 0-1 with a 4.00 GAA and Thomas boasts a 1-0 record with his 18th career shutout. Not to say Rask won't be the number 1 starter, but the two goalies might be closer than you think and it's worth keeping an eye on this fantasy season.


Chicago: The Stanley Cup champions suprised a lot of people by letting playoff hero Antti Niemi walk this offseason and bringing in veteran Marty Turco. Though the Blackhawks are not quite the same team they were last year with the loss of many key pieces to trade and free agency, they are still among the best in the league and whoever their starter is should get a good amount of wins in front of their impressive defensive corps. Turco, if he plays at the elite level he once did, could be one of the fantasy steals of the year as he is typically available much later in the draft. However, he is getting up there in age and the young and talented Corey Crawford is waiting in the wings should Turco falter. Many expect Crawford to be starting for the Hawks by December, but only time will tell.

Washington: Washington has the best offense in the league. Period. As a result, the netminder for the Capitals will likewise get a lot of wins behind that offensive cog. Young phenom Semyon Varlamov won the starting job last year when Jose Theodore struggled with injuries. Upon his return, Theodore managed to win back some playing time down the stretch but Varlamov won out come playoff time. Now Theodore is gone and Varlamov is backed by the even younger and even more talented Michael Neuvirth. Neuvirth won the MVP in leading his AHL team, the Hershey Bears, to the Calder cup in 2009. He now hopes to make some noise in the NHL by being the tender for the early favorites to lead the East. With Varlamov already on the IR due to a nagging groin injury, Neuvirth is a great short-term solution for your fantasy goalies. If Varlamov continues to battle injuries, Neuvirth will take over the starting job and making him a fantasy stud. Get him on your team and see what happens.

Philadelphia: The Flyers have had a sticky situation in net for several years now, and have not had a legitimate number one goalie for quite some time. They came into the season expecting Michael Leighton to play with Brian Boucher as back-up. However, Leighton wasted no time landing himself on the injured reserve, and instead of playing Boucher, the Flyers threw young Russia Sergei Bobrovsky into the fire against the Penguins in game 1 of the season. Bobrovsky responded brilliantly by stopping 29 of 31 shots for the win. It's still unsure what the future holds for the Flyers when Leighton returns, but for now Bobrovsky continues to play well so ride his hot streak for as long as you can.


Los Angeles: Jonathon Quick broke out last year, along with the rest of the Kings. He quickly (pun intended) became one of the better fantasy goalies in the league and a fantasy ace. Coming into the new season, the Kings hope to continue their success and Quick intends to reap the benefits. Except for one thing: Jonathon Bernier. Bernier started for Team Canada in the 2010 AHL All-Star game and won the Outstanding AHL Goalie award for the season. Similar to the Boston situation, this might not be a case of Quick losing the starting job, but Bernier winning it. Bernier is their goalie of the future and if he plays well early, Quick might become expendable and a possible trade candidate. Keep a close eye on Bernier.

Florida: Simply put, Thomas Vokoun is one of the best goalies in the league and Florida is not very good. Vokoun's contract expires this year, so if Florida falls out of contention by the deadline then you might see Vokoun dealt to a contender (Philadelphia?). Count on him to produce great stats now but slightly low on wins, but if he gets dealt to a good team he becomes fantasy gold.