Week 2 NFL Picks, Fantasy Thoughts

Last week was a horrendous week for me. So it's time to get back on track. Not only were my selections awful, but I never got my Thursday night pick in and I didn't choose my usual LOCK and UPSET pick. So this week, we're finally tuned up. Let's call Week 1 the preseason for predictions. This is the real deal.

Oakland 24, Buffalo 17.
Green Bay 31, Carolina 10. [LOCK]
Kansas City 16, Detroit 33.
Cleveland 17, Indianapolis 14.
Tampa Bay 27, Minnesota 21.
Chicago 20, New Orleans 28.
Jacksonville 10, NY Jets 27.
Seattle 12, Pittsburgh 19.
Baltimore 24, Tennessee 13.
Arizona 17, Washington 20.
Dallas 23, San Francisco 14.
Cincinnati 7, Denver 17.
Houston 26, Miami 28.
San Diego 24, New England 35.
Philadelphia 30, Atlanta 20.
St. Louis 21, NY Giants 17. [UPSET]

There are your Week 2 winners. What about fantasy football? I haven't talked much about it so far. To be honest, I'm not sure if I'm qualified to after last week. I lost my opening matchup in both of my leagues, and in one of those leagues, I benched nearly a hundred points (see: Matthew Stafford, Steve Smith, Cedric Benson, & more). But I'll just go with the Matthew Berry approach. I'll give you a few guys I like as sleepers and a few guys I dislike as busts in the second week of the season.

Me gusta (Players I like)
1. Cadillac Williams vs NY Giants. If Steven Jackson is hurt, Cadillac is going to be a pretty good play on Monday Night Football. The fact that he is on Monday night is a little alarming, since you'll have to know for certain that Jackson is inactive before he's a safe bet. Still, he performed well with his carries last week and I see him continuing to do the same on a Rams offense that may see a banged up Sam Bradford hand the ball off more than usual.
2. Tim Hightower vs Arizona. Hightower is a guy I have liked from the outset, being in a Mike Shanahan system that has a history of churning out 1,000-yard rushers. Against his former squad, Hightower will look to shred the Cardinals defense -- a defense which gave up 422 passing yards to Cam Newton last week. What do you think Arizona's defensive group has been focusing on all week? Hey guys, don't forget about the rush defense. Shoot. I think they forgot about the rush defense.
3. LeGarrette Blount vs Minnesota. I had him benched all week, but I think I'm putting him back in there. I'm a little biased because I'm hoping to see the production out of him, but I have to agree with Matthew Berry on this one. He got 5 carries last week, was ineffective, and the Bucs lost. Common sense says you'll change things up a bit. It's not a terribly difficult matchup, and this guy was a 1,000-yard rusher last season. Whatever the gaffe was in Week 1, I'm thinking (hoping) that it's a thing of the past for Blount.

No me gusta (Players I dislike)
1. Jamaal Charles vs Detroit. Look, I know you Charles owners had to start him in Week 1 against Buffalo. It didn't work out quite as well as you'd hoped. He'll bounce back, right? Well, I'm not so convinced. I don't think you're going to get normal Charles production out of him this week, and I actually don't know if you'll even get formidable production out of him. Seeing what Ryan Fitzpatrick did to the Chiefs defense leads me to believe Matt Stafford will shred them apart. If he does that, KC will need to pass the ball. On top of that, the Lions defensive front is a ball hawking, very aggressive bunch who may give Charles owners fits this afternoon.
2. Rex Grossman vs Arizona. Matthew Berry loves Sexy Rexy again this week, but I tend to believe otherwise. Look at Cam Newton's performance last week. A lot of it was due to broken coverage, not laser beams that found tight holes in the secondary. They were fundamental mistakes that can be corrected. Corresponding to the fact that I like Hightower this week, I'm guessing the Cards defense allotted their whole practice week to fixing the horrible coverage woes that surfaced in Week 1. They probably fixed a good amount of them. At least enough to keep Grossman in check.
3. Plaxico Burress vs Jacksonville. Owners who took a chance starting Plax last week ended up getting rewarded with some points. I would cash out while you're ahead. (No, I'm not saying to drop him. Just saying to bench him for the week.) Whether Pats fans like it or not, the Jets are probably going to get a pretty big lead and control the game against the Jaguars. Marky Mark won't be throwing to Plax very much if they don't need to air it out. I wouldn't be surprised if I could count his fantasy points on one hand without my thumb today.
 

Boar Domination, Round Two

I made a very similar post to this one long ago in September. I said that Gore would go silly on the Saints in a Monday Night Football matchup. Needless to say, he did (29 fantasy points in my league, anyway). Well, I'm making the round two prediction. He'll have his 2nd best game of the season tonight. Is that mainly because I need him to perform for my fantasy team tonight and I'm being optimistic? Probably. But the Niners need this win to make the playoffs. You can kiss it goodbye if they lose to the Cards tonight. But a win gets them back within a game of the Rams for first place and, amazingly, they would still be in striking distance at 4-7. Guess who is second-worst in the NFL when it comes to limiting opposing fantasy running backs? Arizona. Guess who has allowed opposing backs to tally fantasy totals of 25+ points on SIX occasions (including their last 4 games) this season? Arizona. Gore is coming off just his second game of the season in which he failed to rush for 40 yards. The last time he did that, he bounced back with that monster game against the Saints I just mentioned. All the signs point toward another breakout week for the man I like to call Frank Boar. So I'll just make that prediction because I have been slacking when it comes to making predictions to keep you entertained. Gore goes for 20+ fantasy points tonight. He might even sniff 30. At least 2 touchdowns. It's bold and I'm asking a lot and this could flop on its face. But I'll even give you a predicted stat line. 29 carries for 163 and 1 touchdown. 6 receptions for 47 and 1 touchdown. That would be 33 points. I'm reaching for the sky with this one, but I have faith in you Frank Boar.

  

I Love Football: Week 9

You may notice that I've changed the title of this post from Fantasy Notes to I Love Football. Because admittedly, I've been slacking on the fantasy notes. Not to say they weren't relatively successful foresights -- a lot of my advice panned out -- but I've been more preoccupied with other stories around the league and, as you know, re-formatting the website as a whole. So instead this will just be my weekly football post about not only the players and teams I like, but also the stories I'm watching and the predictions I'm making.

Rodgers Back to Practice

After suffering a concussion on a crushing hit during Sunday's loss to the Washington Redskins, Packers' quarterback Aaron Rodgers was back on the practice field today. Fantasy owners, you can probably breathe a sigh of relief -- but only a small one. Rodgers is still questionable for this weekend's game against the Miami Dolphins. The practice environment is really nothing like the game environment. And after all the injuries Green Bay has suffered this year -- which I'll get to in a moment -- the last thing they need to do is rush back Rodgers and lose him for a longer period of time. It still wouldn't surprise me to see the Pack play this one safe and go with the inexperienced Matt Flynn against the Miami Dolphins if Rodgers' status doesn't improve over the next few days.

Rodgers, though, is just the latest edition of the Green Bay Packers decimation via injury this season. They're the NFL's version of the Boston Red Sox for this year. Starting running back Ryan Grant is gone for the season. Linebacker Nick Barnett is likely gone for the season. Linebacker Clay Matthews is out. Tight end Jermichael Finley has a torn meniscus and will miss 8-10 weeks, if not the rest of the season. Hell, I might be shopping Jennings and Driver just because they'll probably get hit with the injury bug too. It's been an incredibly unfortunate turn of events for the guys who I picked to represent the NFC in the Super Bowl this season. I still think they're good enough to do so, but with these injuries, they're going to need guys to step up big just to get into the playoff picture.

Anyway, fantasy owners -- stay tuned on Rodgers' status. If you need to splash the waiver wire for a backup QB, I'm looking at Chad Henne against this hobbled Packers defense or Vince Young against the Jags on Monday night. If both guys are taken, I'd be giving serious consideration to the likes of Alex Smith against a subpar Oakland pass defense and even Matt Cassel against the Texans, who don't seem capable of stopping anyone who passes the football on them.

Fantasy Notes: Week 6

After a dry week of football without our hometown Patriots playing (and I guess it might have had to do with my excruciating 3-point fantasy loss thanks to 2 Frank Gore fumbles and an egg by the Chargers), we're ready to jump back into the action for Week 6 of the NFL season. Shamefully, I even forgot to make my NFL winners picks this past week, so I'm going to make them right now at the end of my fantasy advice. Get your popcorn ready.

Patriot Football is Back in Foxboro.
Okay, we all know this. So what's the fantasy impact? Start with the bad news and work our way up. Randy Moss is gone and Tom Brady is no longer poised to be the statistical golden boy he once was. Having said that, there are a few guys who are now prominent options as flex and fill-in players on your fantasy squads. I told you to grab Brandon Tate over a week ago, and I still stand by that advice. Tate is, for what it's worth, the "replacement" for Randy Moss. He's the primary deep threat, he's a kick return threat, and he's an explosive young talent in an aerial Tom Brady offense. That's worth something. Additionally, Deion Branch might be worth a pick-up in deeper leagues. Don't start him this week, but if his chemistry with Brady pays off the way it used to, he'll become a big factor. Perhaps the most exciting side of the story, though, comes from the "tight end" position. Aaron Hernandez is quite the hybrid of a wide receiver and a tight end, and he will look to have an increasingly expanded role in this new-look Patriots offense. Grab him if your tight end isn't Antonio Gates.


If You Didn't Listen Before... Get Amendola.
Danny Amendola. Rams wide receiver. Guess how many times he was targeted by Sam Bradford last week? 19. 19 times, catching 12 for 95 yards. Once this guy starts getting touchdowns, he's going to be an impact fantasy player. With Mark Clayton down for the season, Bradford may not have many more options other than to throw the ball to Amendola.

Grab BJGE and Torain If They're Out There.
In my league, both are taken. But BenJarvus Green-Ellis and Ryan Torain are still available in about 20% of fantasy leagues. Grab one if you can. With the status of Clinton Portis uncertain and Torain running the ball well, he has become a legitimate option. As for Green-Ellis -- he just might continue to thrive in what is a developing transition back to hard-nosed Patriot football.

Mike Williams. For the Future.
Williams is legit. He's freakily athletic and he's showing his stuff this season. Double-digit performances in 3 out of 4 weeks this season has earned him ... a 43% owning rate in fantasy leagues? 10% starting rate? Those will improve once people catch on. I'm telling you to catch on now. Grab Williams, even if he won't be productive this week against the best fantasy pass defense in the league in New Orleans.

So.. Brandon Lloyd's a Monster, Huh?
Brandon Lloyd has emerged in a big way this year, suddenly owned in 94% of fantasy leagues. If your league is among that minority and he's available, I'll politely ask you to wake up and smell the roses. Lloyd is legit, and his quarterback is leading the NFL in passing yardage. No fluke, people. But even Lloyd owners are shying away from giving him the start this week against that killer Jets defense. Let's have a news flash here. The Jets rank 29th out of 32 NFL teams in stopping opposing fantasy wide receivers. After getting completely toasted by the wide outs of Miami and Minnesota, what makes you think Lloyd can't come up big once again?

Get Off The Hill Wagon Before It Throws You Down.
Shaun Hill registered a huge week against the Rams. I get that. But Calvin Johnson is injured, and they're going up against the Giants this week -- ranked 2nd in the NFL against opposing fantasy QBs. Also, don't forget that Matthew Stafford is going to come back eventually. Hill's own-percentage rose nearly 10% since last week, and nearly that same percentage is actually starting him this week. Hey, it's your death bed. Not mine.


Okay, that's it for fantasy. Ask me questions if you wish. Need to know who to start? Ask. Visit the Beantown Breakdown page listed up top, too. You can submit your questions there, as well. Without further delay, though, here are your Week 6 Winners.

Bears 20, Seahawks 10.
Dolphins 24, Packers 21.
Chargers 30, Rams 23
Patriots 24, Ravens 20.
Giants 21, Lions 17.
Falcons 28, Eagles 26.
Steelers 23, Browns 3.
Saints 34, Buccaneers 13.
Chiefs 29, Texans 22.
Broncos 20, Jets 17.
49ers 27, Raiders 14.
Vikings 30, Cowboys 27.
Redskins 23, Colts 17.
Titans 30, Jaguars 29.


Tune in to the Beantown Breakdown on Thursday at 9 PM to hear more, as usual.

Fantasy Notes: Week 5

Alright, we're changing things up again. Tediously picking out 30 players each week is too time-consuming for me and a good portion of it is useless. So I'm thinking I'll just speak my mind a bit. Random comments about the week, guys who will perform and who won't perform. Sleepers and busts. And here's the most important part. I need your questions. Don't know who to start? Leave a comment. Please. Send an email. Listen to the Beantown Breakdown radio show and call in or send in questions. I don't care. But I know you fantasy football players have tough decisions now that bye weeks have started. So why not ask for an extra opinion? Can't hurt, right? As added incentive, I'm succeeding this year in my fantasy league (first place). I'm here to help you!

Palmer, Garrard, and Kolb are Solid Spot Starters This Week.
If your quarterback has a bye week, like mine does, you're likely turning to the waiver wire for a spot-starter. Either that or you are turning to your backup QB, but for some of us (Mike Vick owners, cough cough) our backup isn't serviceable right now. So the waiver wire is the spot, and these are the picks. In 20% of fantasy leagues, Carson Palmer is available. If your league is one of those and you're one of these people, go with him. He's coming off a monster week in which T.O finally played up to his ego. The Bengals just might start snowballing their successes here against a Buccaneers team that really hasn't faced a QB with Palmer's ability thus far. If he's not there, though, I like David Garrard as a backup selection. Garrard is available in nearly 70% of leagues out there, and he's facing a dreadful Buffalo team. After getting torched by the run last week, all of the Bills' defensive resources will go toward stopping MJD. I think Garrard's good for a couple of scores. Finally, Kevin Kolb is actually still out there in about 40% of fantasy leagues. He's the starter this week, folks. He was the Eagles' starter at the beginning of the season. He's worth a shot if you've got nothing better. Go for him. Still, if these guys are all gone, start looking toward the likes of Sam Bradford, Ryan Fitzpatrick, and Shaun Hill.

Don't Wait Till Next Week. Sign Brandon Tate.
Take my advice on this one. If you have extra room on your roster, a guy who you really can afford to drop, pick up Brandon Tate. I don't care that the Patriots have a bye week. Like I said, do it if you have room to do it. He's no longer just a superficial option with an occasional kick return threat. He's New England's #1 folks. Welker is still a slot receiver, making him a #2. Tate is our top wideout. He's replacing Moss. The difference is, Tate will give 110% every play and Tate still has to earn his way to the top. He's an extremely talented and explosive young talent. He still will get you an occasional kick return TD. His already decent numbers will spike dramatically with the departure of Randy Moss. And hey -- since when is Tom Brady's #1 wideout a fantasy non-factor? I'm just telling you, I'd snatch him up before the others catch on. I think he's got serious sleeper potential moving forward.

CJ Spiller or Fred Jackson Will Emerge; Grab Lynch, Too.
The Bills entered this season with that 3-headed backfield. After this week's Marshawn Lynch trade to Seattle, Buffalo has just Jackson and Spiller remaining. All three of these guys have gone up in my book. Spiller has given new hope to all the owners who took chances on him. Fred Jackson now has a legitimate shot to seize the #1 spot like he did last season. And Marshawn Lynch will get a fresh start in Seattle. Most analysts believe the Seahawks have never really wanted Justin Forsett to be their feature back. To me, Forsett has never been a real safe play. Lynch will have every opportunity to kick-start his career under Pete Carroll. If you're looking to take a stab at a running back sleeper moving forward, grab Lynch. If you've got one of Buffalo's backs, I would suggest holding out hope until this week passes by.

This Might be the Week for Mathews, Rice, and Wells.
Ryan Mathews has been a huge disappointment this season for owners who reached out to get him, but I think that disappointment ends this week. He figures to be basically back to full health, and he gets an Oakland defense that has given up the most fantasy points to opposing RBs in the NFL. The Chargers figure to be winning this game, even though divisional games can always be unpredictable. Expect them to run the ball and expect Mathews to finally put up a respectable number. Ray Rice, meanwhile, has been an even bigger disappointment. ESPN projects Rice for a mere 6-point performance, probably because Denver is the 2nd best in the NFL at limiting opposing fantasy backs. I'm not a buyer. Denver has only faced RBs of Rice's caliber twice this year, and both guys -- MJD and CJ -- broke 100 yards on the ground. I think this is the week Ray Rice plays like the Ray Rice we saw last season. And finally -- I don't really know why -- but I have a good feeling about Beanie Wells this week. The Cardinals have a pee-wee level passing attack, but Max Hall showed some bright spots last week. If they can get anything going through the air, Wells should be able to get going on the ground. He's real talented, and that Saints defense hasn't proven they can stop anyone on the ground anyway.

Danny Amendola May be Worth a Look.
I mean, don't take this the wrong way. I'm hardly even calling Amendola a good fantasy option yet. But in deeper leagues, why not take a stab at him? He's available in 94% of leagues right now. So basically you can get him anywhere. He made a stellar one-handed catch in the game last week, which is nothing to write home to your fantasy Gods about. But Sam Bradford has consistently targeted him this season, and against the lowly Lions this week, I don't see any reason why he can't haul one in for a score -- or at least be productive otherwise.

Moss? Immediate Impact.
Lots of people out there are thinking it's going to take time before Moss is a viable option out there in Minnesota. I'm not so sure about that one. We learned in New England how effective Randy can be when he's just straight up running down the field as fast as he can, throwing his arm up, and having his QB let it fly. That's basically what Brett Favre loves to do, even if he throws 47 thousand interceptions in the process. Moss found pay dirt last time he faced Revis and the Jets, so I wouldn't be surprised to see him do it again. If you're a Moss owner, I wouldn't be shying away from starting him.


There's some fantasy thoughts for you. That was a lot easier for me to write, anyway. It probably took just as long. But going through and getting precisely 5 players here, 5 players there ... doesn't it seem a bit monotonous? Like I said, though, speak your mind. Ask me questions. If you're torn between players, I'll help you decide. That's what this website is for when it comes to fantasy football. Helping you win your games. So fire away, folks. Fire away.

Fantasy Outlook -- Week 4 Likes & Dislikes

Last week was a pretty brutal week for me as far as picking the actual NFL winners. I went 9-7, which was a severe drop-off after starting the season 23-9. Still, though, a lot of my likes and dislikes panned out. A few people actually personally contacted me and said that my advice worked for them. So this is still going well. I'm looking to keep it going in that regard. Who's lighting it up and who's putting out their own flames this week? (And just as a reminder, we're getting into bye weeks. So my picks will be bold. I try to pick the lesser players that you might find on the waiver wire, because you're looking for spot-starters these days. You know?)

5 QBs I Like in Week 4:


Michael Vick vs WAS -- Well this is just becoming a regular type of thing, but Vick is still only being started in 64% of fantasy football leagues. I'm here to tell you that Michael Vick is for real. I was telling people after Week 2 that this guy will make the Pro-Bowl this year. I stand by that. And it helps that the 'Skins have gotten wrecked by opposing QBs this season, with the exception of Sam Bradford.
Carson Palmer vs CLE -- I've been wrong about Palmer a few times, but this guy's receiving core is too good for him to stay silent and live under a rock in the fantasy world all season. Newsflash: Joe Flacco and the previously horrid Ravens torched Cleveland last week. They made the blueprint for beating the Browns through the air (as if we needed one). Palmer and the Bengals will use it.
Chad Henne vs NE -- Hey, I'm a Patriots fan. But Ryan Fitzpatrick burned us last week for 23 points by the Buffalo offense. Chad Henne is much better, and he has much better receivers. We're getting into bye weeks, so people are looking for spot starts from QBs. Hate to say it, but Henne should have a solid day against the Pats (swiss cheese) secondary.
Bruce Gradkowski vs HOU -- Wow DRob, that's a little daring, don't you think? Well there are a few things going for Gradkowski. The Texans have the absolute worst fantasy pass defense in the NFL. The Raiders will absolutely be trailing this game, so they will have to pass the ball to stay in it. Darren McFadden is a huge weapon and Gradkowski has him at his disposal out of the backfield. If your starting QB has a bye, Bruce might not be the worst fill-in.
Donovan McNabb vs PHI -- The matchup everyone wants to see. McNabb vs the Eagles. History shows that QBs tend to win when they return to the place they used to call home for a while. I don't have details for you but I saw it on ESPN. McNabb and Vick will get into a high scoring shooting. That means fantasy success.

5 QBs I Dislike in Week 4


Jay Cutler vs NYG -- Get yourself off the Cutler wagon before he drives you straight off the end of a very high cliff. This success won't continue for long. He's still a prissy little bitch.
Eli Manning vs CHI -- This game is just ugly as far as big name QBs who will fall on their face. The Bears held Aaron Rodgers fairly in check. If they can do that, they'll follow up by holding Eli in check.
Joe Flacco vs PIT -- I probably don't even need to say it, but nearly half of all fantasy leagues are starting Joe Flacco this week! Are you serious, people! Pittsburgh's defense is phenomenal (they've been single-handedly winning them games) and Flacco has only surpassed 6 fantasy points in a week ONE TIME! Despite the fact that it was last week (against the Browns...), he won't duplicate it.
Matt Ryan vs SF -- Watch out for this one. The Niners haven't been great this year defensively against the pass, but I'm expecting a turn-around. 0-3? San Fran was picked to win this damn division. After firing their offensive coordinator, their defensive coordinator better make sure his head's on straight. He will. The Niners come out strong. Don't start Ryan, if you ask me.
Mark Sanchez vs BUF -- That's weird that you're picking a QB to do bad against Buffalo, DRob. Well, I know that. But Favre has a bye, so I needed to pick a different quarterback to hate his guts. I picked Sanchez. I just have a feeling he's going to embarrass himself and his team.

5 RBs I Like in Week 4:


Matt Forte vs NYG -- I correctly disliked him last week. I'm turning the tables and liking him this week.  The Giants run defense is mediocre at best. I already said Cutler will be bad. The Bears will win though, so Forte will have to be good. He will be.
John Kuhn vs DET -- Kuhn is only owned in 15% of fantasy leagues. Going into this season, I'd have called you crazy to ever think about starting him. But the facts are the facts. Kuhn gets the most carries in that backfield. The Lions have a brutal... everything, I guess. And Kuhn will get goal line carries. I'd bank on a touchdown. Decent spot-starter here.
Maurice Jones-Drew vs IND -- I mean, you're always going to start him. He hasn't really performed so far, so I just wanted to erase any doubt. He'll start performing. Namely this Sunday.
Arian Foster vs OAK -- Now that he's stayed under the 12 point plateau for two weeks, the expectations have lowered. Time to like him again. I've been disliking him, and he hasn't performed like the Week 1 stud he was. Against the Raiders, he'll get closer to that mark.
Mike Tolbert vs ARI -- This only applies if Ryan Matthews is hurt, but I like Tolbert. He carried 17 times for 73 yards last week -- pedestrian numbers. But that's a decent per-carry average and he's facing the Cardinals. The Cardinals are not only terrible, but they're actually coming off a win. That means they will get destroyed. Tolbert will help.

5 RBs I Dislike in Week 4:


Peyton Hillis vs CIN -- Woah, Nelly! Don't put too much stock into last week's anomaly! Hillis won't repeat that 24-point performance, so don't start him like he is going to do that. If you're only looking for a few points, then go for it. But don't plan on a big day again.
Rashard Mendenhall vs BAL -- Mendenhall has been great this year, but this Baltimore defense isn't something to scoff at. They're real solid. The Steelers are 3-0 and riding a nice wave, but their final game without Big Ben will absolutely be a let down. An overall ineffectiveness on offense will hurt Mendenhall as he tries to break the Ravens. He'll fail.
Ahmad Bradshaw vs CHI -- I mean, I've never really been a Bradshaw fan from a fantasy standpoint. But he's been solid this year. Not this week. I already said this game would be ugly, and I believe it will be. Both sides will struggle, and Bradshaw isn't poised for another big fantasy week.
Ray Rice vs PIT -- I admit that it's a little weird that I dislike Flacco and Rice but still expect the Ravens to beat the Steelers. But I'm talking in respect to Rice's superstar status. Hell, he might even be sidelined with an injury. But if he plays, he'll be average at best. You simply can't break out for huge days against this Steel Curtain.
Justin Forsett vs STL -- 31% of leagues are starting Forsett this week, possibly just because he's facing the Rams. I don't buy it. The Rams actually have an above-average run defense from a fantasy standpoint (if you cut the league in half), so I'm not about to give Forsett the go just yet.

5 WRs I Like in Week 4:


Brandon Marshall vs NE -- Let's be real folks. The Patriots couldn't keep the Bills receivers in check. Marshall's one of the most talented receivers in the game, and he absolutely lit up the Jets last week. He'll get his numbers, even if the Patriots are able to win this game.
Mark Clayton vs SEA -- The Rams will compete out there with the Seahawks. Don't write these guys off. And if Steven Jackson misses the game with an injury, they'll need to pass the ball more. Clayton is their top dog.
Chad Ochocinco vs CLE -- After two straight quiet weeks, he's ready to get back on track. Same argument as Carson Palmer. The Bengals offense, starting with this passing attack, must and will get itself straightened out.
Mike Sims-Walker vs IND -- I feel like Sims-Walker is fake life and I never pay any attention to him or care about him at all, but he'll still get some decent numbers this week. Divisional games are always intense, and the Jags will at least make a run at the Colts.
Louis Murphy vs HOU -- I liked Gradkowski as a sleeper option, and Louis Murphy falls into the same category. He's one of their best options in the receiving core, and he has the potential to be a very valuable spot start. He's only owned in 56% of leagues and he's only started in 21% of leagues. Grab this guy if you need someone.

5 WRs I Dislike in Week 4:


Anquan Boldin vs PIT -- He might get a touchdown, but he will not have the huge day that he had last week. 91% of leagues are starting him this week. 91% of leagues might end up disappointed.
Larry Fitzgerald vs SD -- Not only have the Cardinals been pretty bad, but the quarterback play hasn't been great. Add in what I said earlier about how the Cardinals will be absolutely horrific this week, and it just makes for a rough outing. I'm not diggin' Fitz.
Steve Smith (CAR) vs NO -- Smith has had a nice season, but last week was a big let-down. I'm on the look-out for another one of those against the Saints. Coming off two poor performances, there's simply no way the Saints don't put a strong performance on the field. They'll do everything better than Carolina, including keeping receivers in check.
Steve Smith (NYG) vs CHI -- I'm just not feeling the Steve Smiths this week. Sorry.
Mike Wallace vs BAL -- He was a hero last week against the Buccaneers, but he won't duplicate that. I've been talking in circles about this game quite a bit. The point is, offense will be at a premium. Don't expect the huge day to repeat.

Fantasy Outlook -- Week 3 Likes & Dislikes

Hey, it's time to kick the ball off for Week 3 of the NFL season. We've seen plenty of crazy developments this year, and some of those big surprise players are included in this week's rendition of Likes & Dislikes from the fantasy football world. I mean, as always -- you don't have to take my advice to heart. You can throw it out the window. But being 23-9 in NFL predictions and 2-0 in fantasy football, I figured I'd at least cast the bait into the open water for all you analysis sharks to gobble up.

5 QBs I Like in Week 3
Tony Romo vs HOU -- Romo has been a disappointment to his owners this season, but he certainly has the talent in his wide receiver core to get the job done. Is this the week? Houston has allowed opposing QBs to drop a total of 53 fantasy points on them this season. Both times, the opposing QB has tossed for over 425 yards. Romo can do it, and he will have a solid outing. Keep the faith!
Michael Vick vs JAX -- Here we go again with Vick! It's a make or break week for him. He's been declared the starter, but Andy Reid changes his mind more than Brett Favre (not really). Vick can definitely do it against a Jacksonville defense that has allowed over 600 yards passing and 4 touchdowns thus far.
Carson Palmer vs CAR -- Palmer followed up a 20-point performance in Week 1 with a measly 6 points last week. He'll turn it around against the Panthers, who gave up 19 fantasy points to the quarterback position against both the Giants and the Bucs. The Bengals passing attack should -- and will -- be more formidable than the previously said teams.
Philip Rivers vs SEA -- Rivers always flies under the radar in fantasy. He's put up 44 points this year, and you can count on that number rising this week by another hefty margin. Seattle has only faced Alex Smith and Kyle Orton this year. Rivers is quite the upgrade from a talent perspective. He'll pick them apart.
Tom Brady vs BUF -- Obviously I like Brady to bounce back. He traditionally bounces back well from poor performances. Buffalo sucks. And the Patriots haven't lost a home game since I don't even know when. It won't happen on Sunday. Brady will get back on the same page with his receivers, and the panic in New England will subside.

5 QBs I Dislike in Week 3
Matt Hasselbeck vs SD -- Does Hasselbeck still have what it takes? He's put up 19 and 18 points in the first two weeks of the season, but his numbers aren't all that impressive. Against the Chargers, I think Seattle will eat quite a bit of dust on Sunday. Hasselbeck is at the front of that pack.
Drew Brees vs ATL -- Divisional games are always intense, and the Falcons have been impressive in the secondary. Granted, they haven't faced a quarterback of Brees's caliber yet -- not even close. But the Saints have played two straight primetime games, and the emotional ride often leads to a let down. I'm not stunned if that happens this week.
Kyle Orton vs IND -- The Colts bounced back from that brutal Week 1 loss with a dominating performance last Sunday. Indy has kept some top-notch QBs in check so far, so what will they do with Kyle Orton? You know what my guess is.
Brett Favre vs DET -- He's facing the Lions. I don't care. I hate Favre and he has no receivers anyway. Upset alert!! Vikings to 0-3? That would make my day.
Vince Young vs NYG -- Young was pulled from last week's game, and he's on high alert this week. Even if he plays well and the Titans win, he won't be a very good fantasy play. Chris Johnson WILL bounce back with a huge week against the Giants. No room on the stat sheet for Vince.

5 RBs I Like in Week 3
Chris Johnson vs NYG -- I just stated this. CJ will have a monster week. Under 40 yards last week? Is that real life? And a fumble? If he's rushing for 2,500 yards this year, he'll need to storm back. I don't know if he'll reach that record, but he'll certainly come back strong in Week 3.
Michael Turner vs NO -- If healthy, Turner breaks out this week. Frank Gore went wild against this Saints defense, and like I said, this Saints team as a whole is poised for a letdown. Whichever running back is in the backfield for Atlanta should have a solid week.
Darren McFadden vs ARI -- Is McFadden for real? Without a touchdown, he's still dropped 35 fantasy points this season. These Cardinals let Jason Snelling run wild for 36 points last week. McFadden is Oakland's best option, and I think he'll keep the success going this week.
Correll Buckhalter / Laurence Maroney vs IND -- Knowshon Moreno is out for this game. Whichever one of these two running backs starts in his place could be a sleeper play for those of you in need of a running back for this week. Indy's run defense has been anything but impressive, yielding 372 yards and 3 touchdowns through two weeks.
LeSean McCoy vs JAX -- I'm "liking" the combo of Vick and McCoy for the second straight week. Because I think this Eagles offense is legit. Even though it was against the Lions, they were very explosive last week. I don't see any particular reason why McCoy can't have another solid performance. He's the main guy in that backfield.

5 RBs I Dislike in Week 3
Jahvid Best vs MIN -- The Vikings run defense is pretty solid, and Jahvid Best has been unreal so far. I don't necessarily think he'll drop a goose egg on you, but don't play Best expecting a #1 back in the NFL type of performance again. He's bound to be slowed down at some point, and this week might be the actual reality check.
Ronnie Brown vs NYJ -- The Jets have a solid defense, and Ronnie is stuck in a platoon. He might pick up a touchdown, but don't expect a huge day.
Ray Rice vs CLE -- It's risky to dislike such a talented player against the Browns, but this Browns defense is actually pretty stingy. They're the 6th best when it comes to limiting opposing fantasy backs, and the Baltimore offense has been -- in a word -- God-awful this season.
Arian Foster vs DAL -- Dallas is desperate for a win, and they've done a decent job stopping the run this year. Foster will continue his leveling-off process from the heavenly 42-point Week 1 that got owners all riled up. Back to the average #2 or flex running back that he was expected to be.
Matt Forte vs GB -- Green Bay is my NFC champion, and their defense has been great so far. I don't see any reason why it won't continue to be. The Bears have also been overachievers in my eyes so far. Forte has gotten a lot of points in the receiving game. Cutler will be less impressive and the Bears overall -- including Forte -- will suffer.

5 WRs I Like in Week 3
Miles Austin vs HOU -- For the same reasons I like Tony Romo, I'm digging Miles Austin this week. I'd "like" him on Facebook.
Chad Ochocinco vs CAR -- Same as before. I love Palmer, and Ochocinco is his go-to guy. Forget TO. Ocho will bounce back from a rough go of it last week. It's a great transition going from the Baltimore defense to the Carolina defense. He'll feel like he's on a high school field again.
Mark Clayton vs WAS -- Washington is absolutely the worst in the NFL when it comes to limiting opposing receivers in the fantasy game. 87 points by WRs against them this year. Yikes. Even though Clayton is on the Rams, he's one of Bradford's favorite targets. He might be worth the spot start.
Santana Moss vs STL -- The Rams are still brutal. Moss is becoming McNabb's favorite target. By the end of the year, every league will have removed Moss from the free agent pool. If I were you, I'd grab him right now if he's there. He could emerge as a starter on your squad in due time.
Randy Moss vs BUF -- Statement week for the Patriots. They will go out and show the world that they haven't completely lost their 2007 magic. It starts with the Brady-Moss connection.

5 WRs I Dislike in Week 3
Andre Johnson vs DAL -- I mean, it's highly unlikely that you're going to bench Andre Johnson. I'm just saying he probably won't win your matchup for you this week like he oftentimes does. I like Dallas to bounce back in this game, and that comes from an all-around standpoint. They'll keep AJ in check.
Hines Ward vs TB -- ESPN likes Ward for 15 this week. I like him for closer to 6. Bro, Charlie Batch is throwing him the ball this week. How can you rely on that?
Roddy White vs NO -- If the Falcons make a run at the Saints this week -- which I believe they can -- it will be done on the ground. Receivers haven't really gone off at all on New Orleans this year, and I don't expect that White will this weekend.
Larry Fitzgerald vs OAK -- Granted, he's facing the Raiders. But until the Cardinals show me SOMETHING on offense, I don't think I can have confidence in Fitz being the top-5 receiver he once was. The talent is still there, but he's lost the QB and the WR that were by his side the past few years. I'm not sold on his ability to get back to the top of the fantasy world.
Marques Colston vs ATL -- I mentioned that I don't really like Brees this week, and I'm not too fond of Colston either. I'm putting the Saints on upset alert, and the Falcons defense has held the passing attack of their opposition to mediocre numbers thus far. Colston might still be your starter, but don't go in expecting a huge day.

What do you think? Am I a full-blown idiot when it comes to this stuff? Or does my advice actually hold some value to it? It's your call, but you better decide soon -- Sunday is merely hours away at this point.

What the Hell Should I Do With Vick?

Michael Vick has been the Cinderella story of this year's NFL season. From the bottom of the human being pole and in the depths of hell from a moral standpoint, Vick has done nothing but work hard since coming out of jail. He's been a team player and a community member. He's said all the right things and he's taken the high road. And, miraculously, I think people are almost starting to -- forget? -- about his God-awful crimes from years past. Isn't that the definition of a Cinderella story?

Now, Vick has landed himself the starting job under center for the Philadelphia Eagles. Looking back, this was a fantastic decision for Vick and the Eagles. Tensions were always high with McNabb, so Vick may have seen the window of opportunity there. And Eagles players love getting concussions, so that knocked off Kevin Kolb. Two fantastic games in a row, and boom -- Vick's the main guy. And Andy Reid confirmed yesterday that, barring any unforeseen obstacles, Michael Vick will be the starting quarterback for the Philadelphia Eagles for the duration of the season.

So that brings me to my question. What the hell do I do with this guy on my fantasy football team? I'm in a 1-quarterback league, and I have Tom Brady. Crazy as it sounds, though, Vick has the potential to be a better fantasy quarterback than the Golden Boy. Vick gets the rushing yards that Brady doesn't get. Vick plays on a team that often finds itself in all-out shoot-outs with their opponents. With a few kids in my league needing QBs, should I trade one of these two guys?

Vick is a tough sell right now. I'm not getting back any top-tier players in exchange for Vick -- yet. If I wait, he might develop into a stud that will get me some value in return. On the flip side, he could flop and my value-in-hand is gone. But what if I trade Brady? The same risks are involved with Vick (since he'd be my new starter), but I can definitely get plenty of value in return for Brady. Much more than I could for Vick right now. So I'm wondering -- is it worth it? Will Michael Vick continue to perform better than ever? If the answer to that last question is yes, then I just might have to send away my formerly prized quarterback in the interest of making a better all-around team.

In the end, I'll likely opt to wait it out. I can't make a judgment on Vick from just a game and a half (against the Lions, nonetheless). If he puts together a few more solid efforts (and Brady does, too) then I'll have something cooking. But it does puzzle me a bit to have the #4 fantasy QB in the league this year sitting on my bench this week as I hope for Tom Brady to go vintage on the Buffalo Bills. This situation has to work itself out soon, or I'll probably lose my mind. Still, I'll just count my blessings -- I suppose my problem is a good one compared to what some fantasy owners are facing at this juncture of the season.

Frank Boar Will Dominate Tonight

So this week, despite a brutal Patriots game, was actually even more successful than last week when it comes to my football predictions. In my Week 2 Breakdown, I was able to point out a few of the diamonds in the rough, such as Michael Vick and LeSean McCoy. And Schaub's 497-yard day might justify my reasons for liking him. I was wrong about Jay Cutler, Joe Flacco, and Adrian Peterson. But I never like AP anyway and his team still lost to the Dolphins which was awesome. And as for my game predictions yesterday, I'm 11-4 heading into Monday Night Football. My "lock" of the week was successful when Green Bay stomped Buffalo, and my "upset" of the week was also called when Miami slipped past Favre and his Vikings. So why wouldn't you believe me when I tell you that Frank Gore will go wild tonight in a loss to the Saints?

I already predicted that the Saints will win this game, but I'm throwing out an additional prediction with it. Gore will go off. He sucked in Week 1 against Seattle. Doesn't happen twice in a row. The Saints run defense isn't the most spectacular in the league, and Gore is a spectacular back. The Niners saw their stud QB Alex Smith fire a million interceptions last week, so hopefully they will recognize the clear need to run the ball and pound it down the Saints' throat. So just like yesterday's upset, you heard it here before the act. Gore goes off for a big day, but the Niners fall to 0-2 on the season.

PS -- Vick shouldn't be back at #2 again on the Eagles depth chart. If they want to win, Vick is the guy who will do that for them.

Fantasy Outlook -- Week 2 Likes & Dislikes

If Vick starts on Sunday, he just
might be worth the fantasy start.

Week 1 has come and gone and Week 2 is around the corner. I decided that ranking the top 10 at each position is rather pointless, since you'll basically already know who to start out of the top 10. So I'm switching it up. I'll just give my random thoughts. 5 players I like, 5 players I dislike at each position -- no particular order. Just relative to what you would expect from them, I'll give my thoughts. I'll make my game predictions later in the week. But for you fantasy gurus, here goes nothing.

5 Quarterbacks I like in Week 2:


Donovan McNabb vs HOU -- McNabb is a dual threat QB with a big arm. His team pulled off an upset against Dallas in the opener and they look to continue on that path. Oh, did I mention this Houston defense allowed Peyton to fire 433 yards and 3 touchdowns through the air? Look for McNabb to get his first real solid fantasy performance of the season on Sunday.

Drew Brees vs SF -- Brees wasn't stellar from a fantasy standpoint in Week 1. You can look for him to get back to what he's used to this week against San Francisco. The Seahawks lit up that defense, and they need a confidence boost pretty badly. Do you really think they'll get it against the Saints?

Michael Vick vs DET -- What? I like Michael Vick this week? Disclaimer: this only applies if he starts. That goes without saying. But Kevin Kolb failed concussion tests today and Vick is taking first-team snaps in practice. He lit it up when he was in the game this week. I'm starting to get the feeling that the old Vick is slowly coming back. He just might take over as QB with a few more good performances. And he's facing the Detroit Lions, who even Jay Cutler succeeded against with 22 points. Vick might seriously be worth the start if Kolb is out.

Joe Flacco vs CIN -- Flacco wasn't so hot against the Jets, but I'm looking for him to turn it around against a Cincinnati defense that Brady picked apart last week. Baltimore proved to have solid options at wide receiver, and Boldin had a great game. Flacco will get things back on track, even if ESPN doesn't think so, this week against the Bengals.

Matt Schaub vs WAS -- See Flacco description. Schaub had a tough first week from a fantasy standpoint as well. Arian Foster went wild and took away all the points. Not happening again. Foster won't repeat that performance and, by default, Schaub will have a better one. Andre Johnson is still a freak and the Texans are a team to watch out for. Schaub will air it out nicely.

Watch out -- Palmer's 20-point first week
might be an aberration to throw out.

5 Quarterbacks I dislike in Week 2:


Eli Manning vs IND -- The Colts are 0-1 and will almost assuredly get to .500 this week. Eli won't beat out his brother on Sunday night. The Colts pass defense held Matt Schaub in check, even if that evened off with the running game. Still, Eli won't be able to do what Schaub couldn't do. Stay away.

Jay Cutler vs DAL -- 22 points will most likely be Cutler's best outing of the season. I'd almost put money on it right now. No one likes Jay Cutler and he will have his hands full with a Dallas defense that didn't allow a passing score last week. Don't expect a repeat performance, folks.

Brett Favre vs MIA -- I know, I know, the Dolphins faced the Bills last week. Nothing to write home about. But besides one big play, they completely shut down every phase of Buffalo's offense. And I hate Brett Favre. And the Vikings.

Tom Brady vs NYJ -- I hate saying anything bad about Patriots players or predicting them for anything less than record-breaking numbers. We're still going to beat the Jets, but don't treat Tom Brady like the 2007 Brady. The fact is that the Jets defense is very solid. Brady probably won't pass for more than 2 scores and will likely stay under 300 yards.

Carson Palmer vs BAL -- I have to admit it. Monday night's comedy was not solely due to the pathetic ineptitude of the New York Jets. The Ravens defense is pretty damn good. Like sort of almost the best in the NFL type of good. And Palmer will struggle against them. 20 points against New England, mostly due to a blowout in the second half without any intensity. Not the same type of success this week.

Steven Jackson once again came up short of the
end zone in Week 1. Will that be the case again?

5 Running Backs I like in Week 2:


Steven Jackson vs OAK -- Jackson was real high on my charts entering the season. He was a relative disappointment in Week 1, but I don't see it happening again against an Oakland defense that Chris Johnson destroyed last week. Jackson's one of the best pure runners in the game, and it will be on display this weekend.

Rashard Mendenhall vs TEN -- The Titans allowed Darren McFadden to reel in 21 points on the fantasy scoreboard last weekend. Mendenhall ran like a monster against the Falcons. The steel curtain doesn't have a ton of firepower through the air, so how to you think they're going to attack the Titans?

Brandon Jackson vs BUF -- It's the cliche selection to take Jackson after Ryan Grant goes down for the season. Newsflash: Buffalo sucks. The Packers should be way ahead in this game, and since Brandon Jackson is basically the only back in their depth chart worthy of NFL regular season snaps, his work load should be decent. It will translate into a pretty solid fantasy week -- and maybe even a solid fantasy season.

Darren McFadden vs STL -- Tim Hightower had decent success against this Rams defense, and McFadden had great fantasy success last weekend. He comes in as the 4th highest scoring running back from Week 1. While I don't expect he duplicates his 21-point performance, I expect he notches double digits and continues to reward those who have held out hope with him.

LeSean McCoy vs DET -- McCoy may take a hit if Michael Vick does indeed start at QB, because Vick will be scrambling and taking yards from him. Still, McCoy had a solid fantasy day and he is the number one back on an offense that utilizes its backfield pretty effectively. And did I mention he's facing the Lions? I think I did mention that before actually.

Michael Turner and the Falcons offense
were pretty sluggish in Week 1.

5 Running Backs I dislike for Week 2:


Pierre Thomas vs SF -- San Francisco did get destroyed in Week 1, and I picked the Saints to toy with them in the passing game this week. But I don't think it will happen in the running game. The run defense may have been the only bright spot last week for the Niners, and Patrick Willis is still a monster. Thomas vultured a touchdown last week, but his fortunes may not be so good this time around. ESPN projects him highly, I don't.

Shonn Greene vs NE -- We have a very underestimated run defense. We stifled Cedric Benson and forced a fumble this week. Shonn Greene coughed it up himself once on Monday night. And basically my bashing of Greene just needs to continue, because I still fervently believe he was the most overhyped player this year. Period.

Arian Foster vs WAS -- DO NOT play Foster expecting a repeat performance. I just wanted to warn you of that. Foster had a fantastic first week. You can't count on that continuing on Sunday. The 'Skins shut down the Dallas running game, and I already explained that the Texans aerial attack will get on track this week. Foster isn't posed for another enormous showing. Plain and simple.

Michael Turner vs ARI -- It's tough to dislike Turner because he's such a strong runner. But I have serious questions about this Falcons offense right now. And the Arizona defense did their job shutting down Steven Jackson -- a better runner than Turner, in my opinion -- last week. I'm not looking for big things out of #33. You may not have the depth to bench him, but I'm just telling you I'm not a fan this week.

Adrian Peterson vs MIA -- This is when you all start laughing at me. I've been adamant about my opinion that Peterson is the most overrated back in the league. And I also like this Miami team quite a bit. I also previously said that the Dolphins will beat out the Jets for 2nd place in the East. Plus, I hate Brett Favre. And I hate the Vikings.

Moss was one of McNabb's favorite
targets last week. Will that continue?

5 Wide Receivers I like in Week 2:


Santana Moss vs HOU -- Like I said, McNabb should bounce back strong this week. And Moss is his favorite target. I'm giving him the start if you're up in the air about him.

Brandon Marshall vs MIN -- Swiss Cheese... I mean, the Vikings secondary... shouldn't pose too much of a problem for Marshall in Week 2. He'll get into the end zone for the first time and gratify the owners who took a chance on him.

Calvin Johnson vs PHI -- This is a game that I expect the Lions will be trailing. So they'll be airing it out. Even if its Hill and not Stafford, Calvin Johnson will get numbers. He should have had a big touchdown last week. He'll get that back this week.

Anquan Boldin vs CIN -- I expressed my interest in Joe Flacco this week coming off a subpar quarterback (fantasy) performance over the New York Jets. Boldin's his top target, and he played like it last week -- even against a strong secondary like they have over there in the Meadowlands. Boldin is definitely worth the play this week, and I think he'll reward you for making that decision.

Mike Williams vs CAR -- Surprise pick here out of the Bucs wideout group. Josh Freeman is no passer to celebrate over, but he connected with Williams for an acrobatic catch in Week 1. Williams has a lot of upside and, against a Panthers defense that allowed 203 yards and 3 touchdowns to receivers last week, he just might be worth a flex play. I dig it.

Will Ward be missing Big Ben when
they take the field on Sunday?

5 Receivers I dislike in Week 2:


Hines Ward vs TEN -- Ward is still without Ben Roethlisberger, which might show up more significantly this week against the Titans. Dennis Dixon is a scrambler, Ward might not see the targets he needs to in order to be a top caliber fantasy player this week. Just beware.

Hakeem Nicks vs IND -- Same argument as I made for Eli. The Colts defense held Matt Schaub and Andre Johnson in check last week. Add in the fact that I'm not entirely sold on Nicks, and I'm plain and simply staying away from him if I have other options this week.

Chad Ochocinco vs BAL -- Ocho might be a player you can't afford to sit. Still, if you have another player on your bench that is a formidable option, go with him. Baltimore's got a hell of a defense, and that might be enough to slow down Ocho. The Patriots defense lacked intensity in the second half, and that's where Ochocinco did most of his work fantasy wise. I'm not expecting another big performance.

Randy Moss vs NYJ -- Again, I hate picking against the success of Pats players. But Revis is phenomenal. Nobody can even argue that, whether or not you hate the Jets. He's fully capable of shutting down Moss, and the Pats have other options. If Revis switches over to Welker, then I expect Moss will burn Cromartie for a deep touchdown. But for precisely that reason, I don't see Revis switching off of Moss at any point.

Larry Fitzgerald vs ATL -- Truth be told, I'm not entirely sure why I'm against Fitzgerald this week. I have one of those feelings. Derek Anderson isn't exactly stellar, and the Atlanta defense was actually pretty solid against Pittsburgh last week in the passing game. He might get decent numbers, but don't start him with the expectation that he wins your matchup for you this week.


Have more fantasy questions? Send us an email or leave us a comment. We'll be happy to answer them, or even just to get your thoughts about the breakdown. I'll be picking my NCAA and NFL winners later in the week. I'm 16-14 in NCAA and 11-5 in NFL. Hopefully the winning trends will move forward.

Fantasy Outlook -- Week 1 Rankings

Can Philip Rivers light up KC's defense this week?

It's been a slow ride over the past week or so on Ultimate Boston, but you had to know we would never fail you when it comes to fantasy football, week one. You can't mess that one up. So here it is. My top ranked QBs, RBs, and WRs for opening week of the NFL season. Additionally, I'm picking my winners (and scores just for the hell of it) for the games. We'll revisit all of this once the results are completely history on Tuesday.

Quarterbacks, Week 1.


1. Drew Brees vs MIN -- I know, Brees is the easy selection. But the fact is, he figured out this Vikings defense in last year's championship game. Minnesota is too damn focused on Brett Favre to be figuring out the QB across the field on the other sideline. He'll light up this Vikings secondary just like he did in the NFC Championship game.


2. Tom Brady vs CIN -- The Bengals have a pretty decent secondary, but will they be able to rush the passer effectively? They were very mediocre last season, and that won't cut it against Brady and the Patriots. If you give Brady time, he fires laser beams into tight holes. This is the first game in the season that Brady proves all of his critics wrong. You call me crazy, I call it a leap of faith with some logic behind it.

3. Philip Rivers vs KC -- Kansas City had a middle-of-the-road pass defense last season, and I think Rivers will be the beneficiary this week. He's been flying under the radar all preseason because of the loss of Vincent Jackson. While that downgrades his value on the season as a whole, Rivers will be just fine in week one.

4. Jay Cutler vs DET -- Wait... what? Jay Cutler? Yes, Jay Cutler. Do you understand how bad the Lions defense is? The average QB rating against Detroit last year was 107.0. Triple digit passer rating on average. That's horrendous. 35 passing touchdowns allowed. Over 4,200 passing yards allowed. All worst in the league by far. Cutler has some talented weapons in the receiving core, and despite his poor decision making, he's a physically talented QB. The Lions won't even force him to make tough decisions. Cutler will perform... this week, anyway.

5. Aaron Rodgers vs PHI -- Rodgers is going to be league MVP. Even in a matchup that might not be as favorable as others, he'll always put the numbers up. He can scramble and he still throws a better ball than most QBs in the NFL. He's the complete package under center and the Packers have groomed him perfectly. And I guess it helps that Philadelphia was among the 10 worst in the NFL last season for passing touchdowns allowed.

6. Tony Romo vs WAS -- Romo has the potential to have an even bigger season than usual this year, and it will start against a subpar Washington defensive group. Romo has Miles Austin returning and an emerging rookie talent in Dez Bryant, both players that will help his stats. The Redskins were in the middle of the pack for pass defense last season, but Dallas looks to live up to the hype and send their division rivals to the bottom of the charts after week one.

7. Peyton Manning vs HOU -- Why do I rank Manning so low? I don't know. I just don't think he's as good as everyone else thinks he is. And I think Houston has always given Indy trouble. So I just have a feeling Manning doesn't light it up this week. Give me the 6 guys above him. I'll pass on Peyton for now.

8. Matt Schaub vs IND -- Truth be told, I don't see a huge passing day for either team in this game. But Schaub should be just as good as Peyton. The Colts allowed the most receptions in the NFL last season -- their bend-but-don't-break style might get broken by Andre Johnson. If Schaub's going to have success, it will be through his horse. Look for the Schaub to AJ connection to make Schaub a viable option this week.

9. Derek Anderson vs STL -- Same deal as Cutler here. Anderson is facing a brutal pass defense in St. Louis. He has some talented receivers. He's obviously doing something right, because he ran Matt Lienart straight out of town. It might be a stretch to include him in the top ten, but I see a pretty solid day out of Anderson this week.

10. Joe Flacco vs NYJ -- Just about everyone is staying away from Flacco against the Jets this week. But Darrelle Revis will not be in game shape yet. So I think the Jets defense takes a considerable hit without him (and Calvin Pace). Flacco should have a pretty decent day on what I believe will be a wake-up call to the world, reminding everyone that the Jets actually aren't world beaters just yet.

Chris Johnson will face a shaky Oakland defense.

Running Backs, Week 1.


1. Chris Johnson vs OAK -- Chris Johnson. Enough said. The man is superhuman and he's facing the God-awful Oakland Raiders. It has all the makings for a huge day, and I fully expect it will be. No reason to get off the winning horse.

2. Steven Jackson vs ARI -- The Cardinals aren't a very good rush defense at all. They gave up 4.5 yards per carry last season and ranked near the bottom when it comes to allowing the big play on the ground. They force very few fumbles. Sounds like a defense that Jackson will shred to pieces, especially since Sam Bradford displayed proficient talent in the preseason. Defenses just might have one more thing to at least think about, and Jackson will take full advantage.

3. Adrian Peterson vs NO -- The Saints' biggest problem last year was stopping the run. And as much as I don't really like the guy, AP is a runner. He fumbles alot, and the Saints force alot of turnovers. That might be something to watch out for. Still, with Brett Favre very questionable in the early going and Minnesota's receivers so banged up, you won't have to worry about Peterson missing out on any carries.

4. Maurice Jones-Drew vs DEN -- Jones-Drew is as close to a sure thing as you can get in the backfield, and he -- like these other guys -- is the undisputed best offensive weapon on his team. Something is to be said for that. He'll always be near the top of the rankings. Having not seen anything to change that, I see no reason to drop him.

5. Frank Gore vs SEA -- Seattle has a new coach in Pete Carroll, but I'm still not sure they can slow down Gore. The Niners have seemed to show a clear intention of really using Gore more heavily this year, and I think that will be evident right from the get-go.

6. Ray Rice vs NYJ -- Same deal with Flacco. Everyone is shying away from Rice because of the Jets. The Jets aren't that good, people. They're good. But the Ravens will beat them and Rice and Flacco will both be effective. Rice doesn't merit the very top status like usual, because yes -- the Jets are a good run defense. But don't make the mistake of moving Rice way down the charts because of that.

7. Ronnie Brown vs BUF -- Well, this is a tough one for me. I would so much rather include CJ Spiller or Jahvid Best or Arian Foster in the top 10. But I can't ignore Ronnie. Buffalo has a brutal run defense and Miami has one of the most prolific running offenses in the game. The big problem is Ricky Williams acting as the vulture for Brown's carries. Still, Brown is the top option and I'll treat him that way for now.

8. Ryan Mathews vs KC -- Like with Rivers, I'm not impressed by KC's defense. And this is Mathews' chance to shine. He's a rookie, he's atop the depth chart, and he's a solid runner. It's a make-or-break performance for alot of fantasy players. If I were a betting man, I'd say he performs well.

9. Rashard Mendenhall vs ATL -- Big Ben is suspended. Mendenhall is now their best option offensively. He's a powerful runner and he has shown stints of what he can be when healthy. He gets off on the right foot in week one against a Falcons defense that we New Englanders saw torched by the running game this preseason.

10. Jamaal Charles vs SD -- A lot of rankings are bumping Charles way lower. I still think he's an elite back and the Chargers defense doesn't scare me away from a top ten ticket for Charles. He's dynamic and lightning quick. A poor (but not too poor) man's Chris Johnson. Big play ability. I'll take my chances on a guy like that.

Can Calvin put it together this year?

Wide Receivers, Week 1.


1. Andre Johnson vs IND -- I mentioned that Schaub's success will ride on Johnson this week. I think Johnson gets his numbers. Houston's other receivers might be very quiet, but Andre Johnson will be an impact player against that Indy D which gave up more receptions than any NFL defense last season.

2. Marques Colston vs MIN -- Brees will light up the Vikes, and Colston will be the biggest beneficiary. He was quiet at times last season. He'll have a bigger year this time around. Super Bowl behind them, the Saints will look to move forward and improve on things they didn't perfect before. Colston's consistency is one of those things. It will start on Thursday night.

3. Calvin Johnson vs CHI -- The Bears went from being the league's shutdown defense to quite a subpar squad back there. Calvin Johnson is one of the most talented receivers in the league. This is the year Stafford connects on the next level with Calvin. It starts this week.

4. Randy Moss vs CIN -- We saw Brady connect on one huge deep ball this preseason to Moss. Expect more of that. There's been a lot of criticism about Randy's contract comments. That will all be forgotten after this duo opens up the can of whoop-ass on Sunday afternoon.

5. Miles Austin vs WAS -- I believe Romo will have a big day against the 'Skins, and Austin will be his primary target as usual. He emerged immensely last season, and he's now the top wideout on a prolific passing attack. That's a formula for success.

6. Larry Fitzgerald vs STL -- Against a better defense, I might be concerned with Derek Anderson at QB for Fitz. But against the Rams, I'm not concerned about much of anything offensively. Fitz will perform like the pro-bowler he is, and he'll actually help Derek Anderson look like something of a pro-bowler himself. Maybe.

7. Greg Jennings vs PHI -- I mentioned how much I like Aaron Rodgers this year. Jennings is his go-to guy. No reason that won't be the case once again. Expect a solid day between the duo that so many fantasy players find themselves snatching up.

8. Steve Smith (CAR) vs NYG -- Steve Smith lost a lot of fans last year, and many jumped on the wagon of the guy with the same name over in New York. Well, even with a new quarterback, Smith should have success this week against a shaky Giants secondary. It was what prevented the G-men from becoming contenders year. Smith can exploit that in week one.

9. Reggie Wayne vs HOU -- I'm not big on Peyton, but Reggie always gets his numbers. Even though I don't see this being a huge game for him, it might be ignorant to suggest he can't still be the impact player he always has been. I'll put him in the top 10, but I'm not completely sold on Wayne.

10. Brandon Marshall vs BUF -- Perhaps one of the biggest sleepers out there. Marshall? Sleeper? Well, he is. A lot of people are writing him off because he's in Miami with Chad Henne. The fact is, Henne throws a good ball and Marshall is one of the most gifted receivers in the league. The guy caught 22 passes in a game last year. He's a bona fide #1 wideout. Against an iffy Buffalo D, I'll take my chances on that one.


Week 1 Winner Predictions


Saints 31, Vikings 20.
Dolphins 17, Bills 13.
Bears 27, Lions 19.
Titans 30, Raiders 13.
Patriots 28, Bengals 10.
Giants 23, Panthers 21.
Falcons 24, Steelers 17.
Buccaneers 29, Browns 21.
Broncos 26, Jaguars 23.
Texans 24, Colts 23.
Cardinals 30, Rams 17.
Packers 34, Eagles 14.
Niners 26, Seahawks 7.
Cowboys 28, Redskins 17.
Ravens 27, Jets 19.
Chargers 33, Chiefs 21.


That's all I got. Let's see how all of my predictions turn out once the weekend is over and every NFL team has played their opener.

Update -- I went 11-5 in the winners predictions, which isn't bad but isn't great. As for the positional picks, some were in the ballpark and others were a bit off. Oh well. You win some you lose some, right?

Fantasy MythBuster -- Sam Bradford

Rookie QB Sam Bradford was mighty impressive in his first start against New England.

This blog post might even be pointless, I don't know. But I just felt the need to make it, since Bradford's stock is actually rising and some fantasy players are actually picking him up. Maybe you're a smart fantasy guy and you didn't invest in Bradford's start against New England. But some people are investing in it, and I'm here to reprimand you for that.

Sam Bradford looked relatively unimpressive in his first two preseason games, but he shined in his start against the Patriots. I'll give you that. He was very, very impressive and he has a very bright future in this league. But it's not going to happen this year, people. Definitely not from a fantasy perspective. Hell, he's still not even listed as #1 on the depth chart yet. A.J. Feeley is the Rams starter. But let's say, for the sake of argument, Bradford becomes their opening day starter. He'll be under center behind an offensive line that allowed 44 sacks last season, and he has a receiving core that was already pretty bad before losing top wideout Donny Avery for the season (torn ACL vs Patriots). Steven Jackson is far and away their top offensive weapon and that will not change. It's not a passing offense out there in St. Louis. So that's working against Bradford. And ultimately, I can't believe that anyone is putting stock into a preseason game that the Patriots played in. Haven't you learned not to do that by now? They beat the Super Bowl champs and they lost to the 1-15 Rams. What did you notice about that Patriots defensive gameplan the other night? In the first two games, the DB's were jamming at the line and playing a very aggressive style. In this game, they were dropping into coverage. It wasn't because jamming didn't work. It was because Belichick needed to get a look at how guys play when dropping into coverage. We learned a few things that Devin McCourty needs to work on. Those things wouldn't have been exposed if they kept the same game plan as before. If that were a regular season game, Sam Bradford would have seen such a different defensive scheme from New England that I would guarantee his passer rating would have dropped a solid 20-30 points. Bradford won't see coverages that easy to pick apart in the regular season. It just won't happen.

But, for the sake of argument, let's say it does. Let's say Bradford plays the way he did against the Patriots once the regular season rolls around. Is he even fantasy worthy? Most leagues stick with 1 QB these days, and the answer for leagues like that is no chance in hell. In a 2-QB league, I can maybe see the reasoning behind considering adding him for your bench. And only to keep your bench warm. But you need depth at running back and wide receiver. Those are the guys you fill your bench with. Not rookie QBs who are #2 on the depth chart earning the spot on your squad based on one preseason showing against New England. I'm sorry, but it's just nearly impossible for Bradford to become a viable fantasy option this season. I know bench slots are very valuable and precious in my league. If they are remotely important in your own league, just take my advice -- don't sign Bradford.