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Friday, September 24, 2010

Fantasy Outlook -- Week 3 Likes & Dislikes

Hey, it's time to kick the ball off for Week 3 of the NFL season. We've seen plenty of crazy developments this year, and some of those big surprise players are included in this week's rendition of Likes & Dislikes from the fantasy football world. I mean, as always -- you don't have to take my advice to heart. You can throw it out the window. But being 23-9 in NFL predictions and 2-0 in fantasy football, I figured I'd at least cast the bait into the open water for all you analysis sharks to gobble up.

5 QBs I Like in Week 3
Tony Romo vs HOU -- Romo has been a disappointment to his owners this season, but he certainly has the talent in his wide receiver core to get the job done. Is this the week? Houston has allowed opposing QBs to drop a total of 53 fantasy points on them this season. Both times, the opposing QB has tossed for over 425 yards. Romo can do it, and he will have a solid outing. Keep the faith!
Michael Vick vs JAX -- Here we go again with Vick! It's a make or break week for him. He's been declared the starter, but Andy Reid changes his mind more than Brett Favre (not really). Vick can definitely do it against a Jacksonville defense that has allowed over 600 yards passing and 4 touchdowns thus far.
Carson Palmer vs CAR -- Palmer followed up a 20-point performance in Week 1 with a measly 6 points last week. He'll turn it around against the Panthers, who gave up 19 fantasy points to the quarterback position against both the Giants and the Bucs. The Bengals passing attack should -- and will -- be more formidable than the previously said teams.
Philip Rivers vs SEA -- Rivers always flies under the radar in fantasy. He's put up 44 points this year, and you can count on that number rising this week by another hefty margin. Seattle has only faced Alex Smith and Kyle Orton this year. Rivers is quite the upgrade from a talent perspective. He'll pick them apart.
Tom Brady vs BUF -- Obviously I like Brady to bounce back. He traditionally bounces back well from poor performances. Buffalo sucks. And the Patriots haven't lost a home game since I don't even know when. It won't happen on Sunday. Brady will get back on the same page with his receivers, and the panic in New England will subside.

5 QBs I Dislike in Week 3
Matt Hasselbeck vs SD -- Does Hasselbeck still have what it takes? He's put up 19 and 18 points in the first two weeks of the season, but his numbers aren't all that impressive. Against the Chargers, I think Seattle will eat quite a bit of dust on Sunday. Hasselbeck is at the front of that pack.
Drew Brees vs ATL -- Divisional games are always intense, and the Falcons have been impressive in the secondary. Granted, they haven't faced a quarterback of Brees's caliber yet -- not even close. But the Saints have played two straight primetime games, and the emotional ride often leads to a let down. I'm not stunned if that happens this week.
Kyle Orton vs IND -- The Colts bounced back from that brutal Week 1 loss with a dominating performance last Sunday. Indy has kept some top-notch QBs in check so far, so what will they do with Kyle Orton? You know what my guess is.
Brett Favre vs DET -- He's facing the Lions. I don't care. I hate Favre and he has no receivers anyway. Upset alert!! Vikings to 0-3? That would make my day.
Vince Young vs NYG -- Young was pulled from last week's game, and he's on high alert this week. Even if he plays well and the Titans win, he won't be a very good fantasy play. Chris Johnson WILL bounce back with a huge week against the Giants. No room on the stat sheet for Vince.

5 RBs I Like in Week 3
Chris Johnson vs NYG -- I just stated this. CJ will have a monster week. Under 40 yards last week? Is that real life? And a fumble? If he's rushing for 2,500 yards this year, he'll need to storm back. I don't know if he'll reach that record, but he'll certainly come back strong in Week 3.
Michael Turner vs NO -- If healthy, Turner breaks out this week. Frank Gore went wild against this Saints defense, and like I said, this Saints team as a whole is poised for a letdown. Whichever running back is in the backfield for Atlanta should have a solid week.
Darren McFadden vs ARI -- Is McFadden for real? Without a touchdown, he's still dropped 35 fantasy points this season. These Cardinals let Jason Snelling run wild for 36 points last week. McFadden is Oakland's best option, and I think he'll keep the success going this week.
Correll Buckhalter / Laurence Maroney vs IND -- Knowshon Moreno is out for this game. Whichever one of these two running backs starts in his place could be a sleeper play for those of you in need of a running back for this week. Indy's run defense has been anything but impressive, yielding 372 yards and 3 touchdowns through two weeks.
LeSean McCoy vs JAX -- I'm "liking" the combo of Vick and McCoy for the second straight week. Because I think this Eagles offense is legit. Even though it was against the Lions, they were very explosive last week. I don't see any particular reason why McCoy can't have another solid performance. He's the main guy in that backfield.

5 RBs I Dislike in Week 3
Jahvid Best vs MIN -- The Vikings run defense is pretty solid, and Jahvid Best has been unreal so far. I don't necessarily think he'll drop a goose egg on you, but don't play Best expecting a #1 back in the NFL type of performance again. He's bound to be slowed down at some point, and this week might be the actual reality check.
Ronnie Brown vs NYJ -- The Jets have a solid defense, and Ronnie is stuck in a platoon. He might pick up a touchdown, but don't expect a huge day.
Ray Rice vs CLE -- It's risky to dislike such a talented player against the Browns, but this Browns defense is actually pretty stingy. They're the 6th best when it comes to limiting opposing fantasy backs, and the Baltimore offense has been -- in a word -- God-awful this season.
Arian Foster vs DAL -- Dallas is desperate for a win, and they've done a decent job stopping the run this year. Foster will continue his leveling-off process from the heavenly 42-point Week 1 that got owners all riled up. Back to the average #2 or flex running back that he was expected to be.
Matt Forte vs GB -- Green Bay is my NFC champion, and their defense has been great so far. I don't see any reason why it won't continue to be. The Bears have also been overachievers in my eyes so far. Forte has gotten a lot of points in the receiving game. Cutler will be less impressive and the Bears overall -- including Forte -- will suffer.

5 WRs I Like in Week 3
Miles Austin vs HOU -- For the same reasons I like Tony Romo, I'm digging Miles Austin this week. I'd "like" him on Facebook.
Chad Ochocinco vs CAR -- Same as before. I love Palmer, and Ochocinco is his go-to guy. Forget TO. Ocho will bounce back from a rough go of it last week. It's a great transition going from the Baltimore defense to the Carolina defense. He'll feel like he's on a high school field again.
Mark Clayton vs WAS -- Washington is absolutely the worst in the NFL when it comes to limiting opposing receivers in the fantasy game. 87 points by WRs against them this year. Yikes. Even though Clayton is on the Rams, he's one of Bradford's favorite targets. He might be worth the spot start.
Santana Moss vs STL -- The Rams are still brutal. Moss is becoming McNabb's favorite target. By the end of the year, every league will have removed Moss from the free agent pool. If I were you, I'd grab him right now if he's there. He could emerge as a starter on your squad in due time.
Randy Moss vs BUF -- Statement week for the Patriots. They will go out and show the world that they haven't completely lost their 2007 magic. It starts with the Brady-Moss connection.

5 WRs I Dislike in Week 3
Andre Johnson vs DAL -- I mean, it's highly unlikely that you're going to bench Andre Johnson. I'm just saying he probably won't win your matchup for you this week like he oftentimes does. I like Dallas to bounce back in this game, and that comes from an all-around standpoint. They'll keep AJ in check.
Hines Ward vs TB -- ESPN likes Ward for 15 this week. I like him for closer to 6. Bro, Charlie Batch is throwing him the ball this week. How can you rely on that?
Roddy White vs NO -- If the Falcons make a run at the Saints this week -- which I believe they can -- it will be done on the ground. Receivers haven't really gone off at all on New Orleans this year, and I don't expect that White will this weekend.
Larry Fitzgerald vs OAK -- Granted, he's facing the Raiders. But until the Cardinals show me SOMETHING on offense, I don't think I can have confidence in Fitz being the top-5 receiver he once was. The talent is still there, but he's lost the QB and the WR that were by his side the past few years. I'm not sold on his ability to get back to the top of the fantasy world.
Marques Colston vs ATL -- I mentioned that I don't really like Brees this week, and I'm not too fond of Colston either. I'm putting the Saints on upset alert, and the Falcons defense has held the passing attack of their opposition to mediocre numbers thus far. Colston might still be your starter, but don't go in expecting a huge day.

What do you think? Am I a full-blown idiot when it comes to this stuff? Or does my advice actually hold some value to it? It's your call, but you better decide soon -- Sunday is merely hours away at this point.

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