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Sunday, February 6, 2011

Super Bowl Gameday Preview

It's finally Super Bowl Sunday, and most fans will be spending the day preparing their living arrangements for company or cheffing up some delicious plates of munchies or dip or whatever else might look good. Even some of them will be watching the Jersey Shore marathon from noon until gametime. But all distractions aside, what will we look for in the big game tonight?

We already know that I have a bias for Green Bay in this game, but I'll look at things in as partial a way as possible. When it boils down to the product left on the field, who wins the key points and matchups and gives themselves the necessary advantage to win the ultimate prize?

Line of Scrimmage: The line of scrimmage will be a critical matchup in this game, and Pittsburgh is the more vulnerable team. Pro Bowl center Maurkice Pouncey will miss the big game, leaving Doug Legursky to fill his slot. Legursky is a capable backup, but it's not every day you stare across the line at B.J. Raji. The Packers' big guy could cause some serious problems for the Steel Curtain, but if Legursky is able to hold his own, he'll flip the advantage back to his squad. In a game where everyone is raving about the two quarterbacks and the two defensive secondaries, the line of scrimmage will be where the battle is won or lost. For now, I can't put my trust in Legursky over the former BC Eagles star Raji. Advantage: Green Bay.

Ground n' Pound: The running game is directly related to the battle of the line of scrimmage, but here's the thing -- you need the running back to go along with the offensive line. James Starks has been exceptional in the postseason, but will the pressure of the biggest stage get to him? Tough to say, but Rashard Mendenhall has proven himself. He's been among the top backs in the NFL in the past couple seasons, and I expect he'll be ready to go tonight. The running game will be a huge determining factor in the outcome from the offensive side of the ball, and the Steelers have the raw goods in that department. Advantage: Pittsburgh.

Air it Out: It's what everyone is discussing in this game -- the passers. Aaron Rodgers and Ben Roethlisberger are two of the NFL's premiere QBs, but it's not even too close when it comes to my opinion. I think Aaron Rodgers is one of the most underrated players in the game, even despite the fact that most people think he's among the elite. He's better than that. Rodgers deserves to be in the conversation with Tom Brady and Peyton Manning; the only thing separating him from that class is the jewelry on his fingers. A win tonight from Aaron Rodgers gets him to the next level. Regardless, I can see the skill set. Rodgers throws a pass resembling that of Tom Brady and he eludes the pocket with the efficiency of Michael Vick. He's gotten there with a usually brutal offensive line that allows so many sacks that the QB's health is often put in question. And he still carries this team where they need to be. If I was starting an NFL team right now, I would most definitely consider picking Aaron Rodgers over every other field general in the NFL. That's saying something. I'm giving the passing game to the Pack. Advantage: Green Bay.

Turn the Tables: Turnovers, turnovers, turnovers. They can make or break a football game, and the team that wins the turnover battle is oftentimes the team who wins the game. I'll take the Packers once again, who have been fundamentally sound all year long. Pittsburgh nearly coughed their season away with turnovers in the first half of their game against Baltimore -- we've seen that they can be susceptible to those mistakes. Pittsburgh may have some playmakers on defense to force them, but the Packers have guys who are playing just as well (if not better) in their side. Advantage: Green Bay.

X-Factors: All of these categories can be thrown out the window if the gamechangers can make their gamebreaking plays. Those are the matchups you have to watch out for. Let's start with the Pack. Clay Matthews can be the difference if he elevates to the level he's capable of. He can nullify Pittsburgh's advantage in the running game and deny Roethlisberger the time to elude the pocket as he does so well. Conversely, Mike Wallace can stretch the defense and completely change the dynamic of the game for Pittsburgh. One deep pass to Wallace can lead to several underneath passes to Hines Ward and dump-offs to Rashard Mendenhall. The two QBs are obviously huge gamebreakers as well, and the Steelers have Troy Polamalu in the secondary to make things happen. When it comes to the wild cards who can steal the game away despite the other factors, the guys who have been here before get the edge. Advantage: Pittsburgh.

The Result: Football is an incredible sport, and an outcome can't be quantified by who wins which categories. Still, I'm feeling the mojo for the Packers' run to the title. I think they have what it takes. These two teams are so strikingly similar, it's bound to be an exciting game. Pittsburgh may run the ball a little better and Green Bay may pass it a bit more effectively, but the composition of the two squads are very much alike. I can't wait for 6:30 to get here, and I'm predicting (and hoping, of course) that Green Bay brings home it's first championship since January of '97. The Pick: Packers 27, Steelers 20.
 

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