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Wednesday, August 11, 2010

Fantasy Outlook -- Impact of Revis Holdout

As Patriots fans, we can all scoff at the current Darrelle Revis holdout situation and go on and on about how unprofessional the Jets are and how they will never win the Super Bowl. But taking a step back and looking at this thing from not just a New England perspective but from a league view, what impact does the holdout of Darrelle Revis have on fantasy football?

Call me crazy, but I truly think that the Revis holdout has a considerable impact on the way some fantasy football drafts will play out in the coming weeks. Take a look at two players who are generally near the top of the rankings for wide receivers: Randy Moss and Brandon Marshall. A lot of people will put these guys up there as the two most gifted receivers in the league. It wouldn't be fair to exclude the likes of Larry Fitzgerald and Andre Johnson from that mix, but for the sake of making a point, I'm just going to talk about Moss and Marshall (but still keep Johnson in mind throughout this). Randy Moss was relatively shut down last season by Darrelle Revis, but it's not like that was a rare feat. Just about every #1 receiver Revis faced last season was mostly or totally nullified for the game. He earned his pay and then some. With Revis holding out, that's two games for both Moss and Marshall that could see significant fantasy improvements. Do you think that the drop-off won't be that much? Last season, Moss racked up 16 fantasy points in Week 1; he dropped to just 2 fantasy points against Revis in Week 2. Then, in Week 10, he tied his season high with 31 fantasy points. The following week, Revis held him to 10. The fantasy impact that Revis has on receivers is pretty significant. It's nothing to overthrow your entire draft plan for, but there are a few things to definitely keep in mind.

If you play in a point-per-reception league, I think that their value goes up a lot more by this holdout. Moss faces the Jets in Weeks 2 and 13. Marshall faces the Jets in Weeks 3 and 14. Keep in mind those latter weeks. We're talking about the times of a fantasy season where you're either playing playoff games or fighting to get into those playoffs. These receivers could have huge weeks in those clutch times if Darrelle Revis isn't suiting up. Granted, it's not like the Jets are a horrible team without him. But losing the best shutdown corner in the game doesn't exactly bode well for containing some of the most gifted receivers in the league.

So basically, all I'm saying is that their stock has risen a little bit. It's nothing to break the bank over, but if one of these guys is there when you're on the clock, give it a little extra thought in regards to how helpful they could be all year, especially down the stretch. Fantasy drafts will be happening soon... so get ready. More pre-draft analysis in the coming days.

And as I've said before, we're still looking for fantasy football analysts. Do you know your stuff? Send us an email at the address listed up top. We'd love to have you.


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