Fantasy Outlook -- Week 4 Likes & Dislikes

Last week was a pretty brutal week for me as far as picking the actual NFL winners. I went 9-7, which was a severe drop-off after starting the season 23-9. Still, though, a lot of my likes and dislikes panned out. A few people actually personally contacted me and said that my advice worked for them. So this is still going well. I'm looking to keep it going in that regard. Who's lighting it up and who's putting out their own flames this week? (And just as a reminder, we're getting into bye weeks. So my picks will be bold. I try to pick the lesser players that you might find on the waiver wire, because you're looking for spot-starters these days. You know?)

5 QBs I Like in Week 4:


Michael Vick vs WAS -- Well this is just becoming a regular type of thing, but Vick is still only being started in 64% of fantasy football leagues. I'm here to tell you that Michael Vick is for real. I was telling people after Week 2 that this guy will make the Pro-Bowl this year. I stand by that. And it helps that the 'Skins have gotten wrecked by opposing QBs this season, with the exception of Sam Bradford.
Carson Palmer vs CLE -- I've been wrong about Palmer a few times, but this guy's receiving core is too good for him to stay silent and live under a rock in the fantasy world all season. Newsflash: Joe Flacco and the previously horrid Ravens torched Cleveland last week. They made the blueprint for beating the Browns through the air (as if we needed one). Palmer and the Bengals will use it.
Chad Henne vs NE -- Hey, I'm a Patriots fan. But Ryan Fitzpatrick burned us last week for 23 points by the Buffalo offense. Chad Henne is much better, and he has much better receivers. We're getting into bye weeks, so people are looking for spot starts from QBs. Hate to say it, but Henne should have a solid day against the Pats (swiss cheese) secondary.
Bruce Gradkowski vs HOU -- Wow DRob, that's a little daring, don't you think? Well there are a few things going for Gradkowski. The Texans have the absolute worst fantasy pass defense in the NFL. The Raiders will absolutely be trailing this game, so they will have to pass the ball to stay in it. Darren McFadden is a huge weapon and Gradkowski has him at his disposal out of the backfield. If your starting QB has a bye, Bruce might not be the worst fill-in.
Donovan McNabb vs PHI -- The matchup everyone wants to see. McNabb vs the Eagles. History shows that QBs tend to win when they return to the place they used to call home for a while. I don't have details for you but I saw it on ESPN. McNabb and Vick will get into a high scoring shooting. That means fantasy success.

5 QBs I Dislike in Week 4


Jay Cutler vs NYG -- Get yourself off the Cutler wagon before he drives you straight off the end of a very high cliff. This success won't continue for long. He's still a prissy little bitch.
Eli Manning vs CHI -- This game is just ugly as far as big name QBs who will fall on their face. The Bears held Aaron Rodgers fairly in check. If they can do that, they'll follow up by holding Eli in check.
Joe Flacco vs PIT -- I probably don't even need to say it, but nearly half of all fantasy leagues are starting Joe Flacco this week! Are you serious, people! Pittsburgh's defense is phenomenal (they've been single-handedly winning them games) and Flacco has only surpassed 6 fantasy points in a week ONE TIME! Despite the fact that it was last week (against the Browns...), he won't duplicate it.
Matt Ryan vs SF -- Watch out for this one. The Niners haven't been great this year defensively against the pass, but I'm expecting a turn-around. 0-3? San Fran was picked to win this damn division. After firing their offensive coordinator, their defensive coordinator better make sure his head's on straight. He will. The Niners come out strong. Don't start Ryan, if you ask me.
Mark Sanchez vs BUF -- That's weird that you're picking a QB to do bad against Buffalo, DRob. Well, I know that. But Favre has a bye, so I needed to pick a different quarterback to hate his guts. I picked Sanchez. I just have a feeling he's going to embarrass himself and his team.

5 RBs I Like in Week 4:


Matt Forte vs NYG -- I correctly disliked him last week. I'm turning the tables and liking him this week.  The Giants run defense is mediocre at best. I already said Cutler will be bad. The Bears will win though, so Forte will have to be good. He will be.
John Kuhn vs DET -- Kuhn is only owned in 15% of fantasy leagues. Going into this season, I'd have called you crazy to ever think about starting him. But the facts are the facts. Kuhn gets the most carries in that backfield. The Lions have a brutal... everything, I guess. And Kuhn will get goal line carries. I'd bank on a touchdown. Decent spot-starter here.
Maurice Jones-Drew vs IND -- I mean, you're always going to start him. He hasn't really performed so far, so I just wanted to erase any doubt. He'll start performing. Namely this Sunday.
Arian Foster vs OAK -- Now that he's stayed under the 12 point plateau for two weeks, the expectations have lowered. Time to like him again. I've been disliking him, and he hasn't performed like the Week 1 stud he was. Against the Raiders, he'll get closer to that mark.
Mike Tolbert vs ARI -- This only applies if Ryan Matthews is hurt, but I like Tolbert. He carried 17 times for 73 yards last week -- pedestrian numbers. But that's a decent per-carry average and he's facing the Cardinals. The Cardinals are not only terrible, but they're actually coming off a win. That means they will get destroyed. Tolbert will help.

5 RBs I Dislike in Week 4:


Peyton Hillis vs CIN -- Woah, Nelly! Don't put too much stock into last week's anomaly! Hillis won't repeat that 24-point performance, so don't start him like he is going to do that. If you're only looking for a few points, then go for it. But don't plan on a big day again.
Rashard Mendenhall vs BAL -- Mendenhall has been great this year, but this Baltimore defense isn't something to scoff at. They're real solid. The Steelers are 3-0 and riding a nice wave, but their final game without Big Ben will absolutely be a let down. An overall ineffectiveness on offense will hurt Mendenhall as he tries to break the Ravens. He'll fail.
Ahmad Bradshaw vs CHI -- I mean, I've never really been a Bradshaw fan from a fantasy standpoint. But he's been solid this year. Not this week. I already said this game would be ugly, and I believe it will be. Both sides will struggle, and Bradshaw isn't poised for another big fantasy week.
Ray Rice vs PIT -- I admit that it's a little weird that I dislike Flacco and Rice but still expect the Ravens to beat the Steelers. But I'm talking in respect to Rice's superstar status. Hell, he might even be sidelined with an injury. But if he plays, he'll be average at best. You simply can't break out for huge days against this Steel Curtain.
Justin Forsett vs STL -- 31% of leagues are starting Forsett this week, possibly just because he's facing the Rams. I don't buy it. The Rams actually have an above-average run defense from a fantasy standpoint (if you cut the league in half), so I'm not about to give Forsett the go just yet.

5 WRs I Like in Week 4:


Brandon Marshall vs NE -- Let's be real folks. The Patriots couldn't keep the Bills receivers in check. Marshall's one of the most talented receivers in the game, and he absolutely lit up the Jets last week. He'll get his numbers, even if the Patriots are able to win this game.
Mark Clayton vs SEA -- The Rams will compete out there with the Seahawks. Don't write these guys off. And if Steven Jackson misses the game with an injury, they'll need to pass the ball more. Clayton is their top dog.
Chad Ochocinco vs CLE -- After two straight quiet weeks, he's ready to get back on track. Same argument as Carson Palmer. The Bengals offense, starting with this passing attack, must and will get itself straightened out.
Mike Sims-Walker vs IND -- I feel like Sims-Walker is fake life and I never pay any attention to him or care about him at all, but he'll still get some decent numbers this week. Divisional games are always intense, and the Jags will at least make a run at the Colts.
Louis Murphy vs HOU -- I liked Gradkowski as a sleeper option, and Louis Murphy falls into the same category. He's one of their best options in the receiving core, and he has the potential to be a very valuable spot start. He's only owned in 56% of leagues and he's only started in 21% of leagues. Grab this guy if you need someone.

5 WRs I Dislike in Week 4:


Anquan Boldin vs PIT -- He might get a touchdown, but he will not have the huge day that he had last week. 91% of leagues are starting him this week. 91% of leagues might end up disappointed.
Larry Fitzgerald vs SD -- Not only have the Cardinals been pretty bad, but the quarterback play hasn't been great. Add in what I said earlier about how the Cardinals will be absolutely horrific this week, and it just makes for a rough outing. I'm not diggin' Fitz.
Steve Smith (CAR) vs NO -- Smith has had a nice season, but last week was a big let-down. I'm on the look-out for another one of those against the Saints. Coming off two poor performances, there's simply no way the Saints don't put a strong performance on the field. They'll do everything better than Carolina, including keeping receivers in check.
Steve Smith (NYG) vs CHI -- I'm just not feeling the Steve Smiths this week. Sorry.
Mike Wallace vs BAL -- He was a hero last week against the Buccaneers, but he won't duplicate that. I've been talking in circles about this game quite a bit. The point is, offense will be at a premium. Don't expect the huge day to repeat.