Fantasy Outlook -- My Top 10 RBs

Most of your fantasy drafts are very quickly approaching or have already passed. If it has already passed -- my apologies. But if not, it's time to take out your draft notes and think about who you're taking with your first running back selection. I'll let you know who my top 10 backs are as well as a few additional guys I like and dislike at their respective values. 

10. Jamaal Charles, KC - Charles is a guy that many fantasy owners are shying away from because of the addition of Thomas Jones to the Chiefs' backfield. While I do see the reasoning in that, I'm not taking putting much stock into the threat. Jones turned 32 yesterday, already over the traditional plateau of an NFL running back. This is where the downslide almost always begins. Why any different with Jones? He's been one of the most heavily worked backs in the NFL over the last three years, garnering 300+ carries and finishing in the top 7 in attempts each year. He's carried the ball 2,280 times in his career. He'll have to wear off at some point. I don't expect he'll get close to the touches Charles gets. Charles was your second-best fantasy rusher in the second half of last season behind God himself (Chris Johnson). The only way to distinguish these two backs is to flip their initials. Charles resembles Johnson so much that I feel silly not putting him in the top 10. 968 yards and 7 TDs in the final 8 games of 2009? I'll take those numbers. Give me Charles any day.

9. Ryan Grant, GB - Talk about job security. Brandon Jackson is Grant's only competition for the starting halfback spot in Green Bay, and that has been the case for the past few seasons now. I feel like a lot of people consider Ryan Grant a bit of a flop at this point after underproducing in 2008. The fact is, since his rookie season, his yards-per-game numbers have steadily increased. For a guy who rushed for 1,253 yards and 11 scores on the ground last year, Grant's stock is pretty low. Still, he's being drafted late in the second round or early in the third round. You can't go wrong with him in the third. I'd even take him in the second if he's there and the 8 guys below him on this list aren't. He's a powerful, downhill runner that will benefit from the Packers' improved offensive line. And what about all the hype for Aaron Rodgers? People calling him the best QB in the league? How will defenses react to that? Grant is a guy that can do big damage in a quiet way. But whether it's quiet or he makes a huge bang, it doesn't matter for fantasy. All that matters are the stats, and Ryan Grant will bring them.

8. Rashard Mendenhall, PIT - Mendenhall averaged an impressive 4.6 yards per carry last season and only scored 7 times on the ground. Still, he was a thousand-yard rusher in his first full season of work. Mewelde Moore is still his only serious competition in that backfield, so job security won't be an issue here either. Oh... what's that? Ben Roethlisberger is out for the first 4-6 weeks (pending appeal) due to his suspension for raping that chick and doing other disorderly things? I wonder what the Steelers will do in his absence. Air it out? Of course not. They're going to pound it down their opponents' throats on the ground. And Mendenhall is the guy to do it. If he's able to prove himself in those first few weeks, we may see a transition back to the tough and rugged, ground and pound Pittsburgh Steelers of old. The modern Steelers and Big Ben have been airing it out a lot more -- Mendenhall only saw 242 carries last season, a pedestrian 11th place in the league. He ran the ball well last year and looks to improve on what was still a pretty solid season. If nothing else, at least you know that Mendenhall will get a very good chance to prove himself in the early going. It might be hit or miss, but I'm willing to take a chance on him succeeding.

7. Michael Turner, ATL - Now we're into what most consider the top tier backs. Turner is on the bubble of that list, but most people will draw the dividing line just before his name here, including him in that top tier. But it doesn't come without his share of criticism. There are two big knocks on Turner. The first I don't entirely agree with -- injury-prone. Injury-prone? He severely sprained his ankle last season and missed 6 games -- yes. But that's pretty much his only injury. The season prior, he rushed the ball 376 times for a silly 1,699 yards and 17 touchdowns. Ridiculous season. And last season, despite missing those 6 games, he still racked up 871 yards and 10 scores. The guy is a solid back and is a special mix of power and finesse. Having said that, the second knock on Turner carries more weight -- he doesn't get receptions. Ever. He's caught the ball 11 times for 76 yards in the past two seasons combined, and he has never scored a receiving touchdown in his 6 seasons in the NFL. That is something to worry about, because he comes off the field whenever he doesn't pick up that first down on 2nd and 7. Take a look at some of the top backs in the league. They're sniffing 500 yards and a few scores through the air. Turner needs to make up for those numbers in the ground game in order to be put on an equal level with those guys. Frankly, I don't think he can make up a gap like that. So I have him on the very outskirts of that top-tier list.

6. Steven Jackson, STL - Man, oh man. Steven Jackson gives me headaches year in and year out -- but not because of poor performances. Rather, I can't stand the fact that one of the most talented runners in the game cannot surround himself with talent; EVER. Jackson, in my opinion, is in the debate when you talk about the best pure runners in the game today. Since his second year in the league, Jackson has never run for less than 1,000 yards. He has never had a per-carry average less than 4.1. He has never lost more than 3 fumbles. His longest run has never been shorter than 51 yards. So, what's the downside? He's only played 16 games once. And he's only scored double digit touchdowns once. It's quite frustrating to see a guy with so much talent just never be able to put the whole package together. I think this year is the year he does it. If you ask me, these top 6 on my list are nearly interchangeable after Chris Johnson. They're all so similar, I wouldn't even be excited to have the #2 overall pick. I'd gladly take any of these guys on my squad. Jackson has a new quarterback -- a rookie, Sam Bradford. If Bradford can play anything like Matthew Stafford did in his rookie season, I think Jackson will benefit from it. He had the second-most rushing yards in the NFL last season behind CJ. If his touchdown total can rise, you'll be golden with Jackson. He always gets the yards, even playing through injury. Like I said, he's never had a season with less than quadruple-digit yardage on the ground since his rookie year, when he had 673 (still 5.0 ypc). I always end up taking Jackson, and this year, I think the rewards could be even greater.

5. Frank Gore, SF - The San Francisco 49ers made it very clear what their purpose was with this year's NFL draft: build the team around Gore. Taking offensive linemen to evidently bolster that run-blocking line, the 'Niners might have finally accepted the fact that Gore is far-and-away their best offensive weapon. Despite missing 2+ games to injury last season, Gore eclipsed double-digit rushing touchdowns for the first time in his career. He rushed for 1,120 yards with a gaudy 4.9 per-carry average, but the receiving game is one of his specialties as a back. He caught 52 passes for 406 yards and 3 scores. Those numbers will definitely help bolster the fantasy numbers for an already impressive halfback. Will the addition of Brian Westbrook take away from Gore's receiving numbers? Possibly. But I wouldn't worry too much. Gore is injury-prone, though, so Gore-owners should definitely try to snatch up Westbrook. You don't want Westbrook beating your team with Gore sitting on your bench. Overall, though, much like Steven Jackson, I think this could be Gore's biggest rushing season -- even if his receiving totals take a little bit of a hit. He's going, on average, 8th overall on your draft boards. I'd be taking him a few picks earlier in my league.

4. Maurice Jones-Drew, JAX - MJD is considered an amazing "bronze medal" by ESPN, defaulting him as the consensus #3 back behind CJ and AP. My rankings go against the grain up here at the top of the list. Jones-Drew is a phenomenal runner, and I'm fully hoping that he slips to my #4 selection in my draft this year (although Ray Rice is off the board as a keeper in my league -- complicated keeper system, don't ask). Jones-Drew had 312 carries in his first season as a full-on feature back for the Jags. And he did a hell of a job, rushing for 1,391 and 15 touchdowns. At age 25, he just might be entering the prime of his rushing career. But I'm approaching with just the slightest hint of caution. MJD has set the bar high for himself. Michael Turner stunned crowds in his first season as a feature back. He got hurt in his second season because of the rapid increase in work. While I don't expect that with MJD, this could be a very telling season for him coming off that standout year. I fully expect that Jones-Drew will be right up at the top of the league in fantasy stats once again. He's a big part of the receiving game, hauling in 53 catches last year. Even though he plays on a pretty weak team, he's as close to a sure thing as you get in the backfield. Don't take this description as a knock on him -- he's one of my favorite runners on the board. I'm just a little bit higher on the three guys listed above him. And trust me -- I was incredibly close to flip-flopping him with the guy I'm about to talk about.

3. Adrian Peterson, MIN - Maybe I'm the only fantasy player in the world who wouldn't take AP at #2, but I'm open about the fact that I'm not an Adrian Peterson fan. For a guy whose yards-per-carry average and fumbles lost stats have steadily worsened since his rookie season, I just think he's simply way overrated. He's not a consensus #2 in the NFL. He was 5th in rushing yards and ranked worst in the league in fumbles last season (19 over his past 3 years). Now that Brett Favre is back for a second season, it will be the Favre offense -- not the Peterson offense -- that resulted in decreased carries for AP last season (in comparison to 2008). The difference? I'm not buying Favre's ability to lead this offense down the field and give Peterson the goalline carries he got so many of in 2009. 18 touchdowns is phenomenal -- don't get me wrong. But I'm not giving AP those numbers again this year. In fact -- call me crazy -- but AP may even lose some short-yardage carries, too. With all those fumbles, might Minnesota turn to big rumbling back Toby Gerhart to pick up the first downs and the goalline touchdowns? It's possible. Look, I still have AP at #3 overall. He's inevitably going to be among the top backs in the league from a fantasy standpoint. But I'm not buying the fact that he's a lock to be the second best. Because I don't believe he will be.

2. Ray Rice, BAL - Ray Rice was in a tandem last season with Willis McGahee, but you never would have known it. Rice rushed for 1,339 yards on a silly 5.3 yards per carry average last year. Consider that he had an absurd 78 receptions for 702 yards, and you're looking at the best platoon back in the history of the world. Over 2,000 yards from scrimmage? Christ, what's going to happen when He's the feature back? Or what about when defenses need to prepare for the long ball to newly acquired deep threats Anquan Boldin and Donte Stallworth? Additionally, Boldin is one of the best blocking wide receivers in the league. While some critics are hammering Rice's stock downward because of these receiving additions, I'm pumping it up. He'll have just as good a season -- if not better -- for the number of touches he gets, and that number should increase given his incredible talent that the NFL is finally learning about. On a much smaller scale, we saw a similar platoon in 2008 with Chris Johnson and Lendale White. White got the goalline carries. Willis McGahee got the goalline carries over Rice last year, scoring 12 touchdowns in comparison to Rice's 7. What happened the second season? I think it's safe to say Chris Johnson outlasted the goalline threat. Ray Rice could break out with a ridiculous year, and I'd be willing to spend that high pick on him if he was available.

1. Chris Johnson, TEN - I'm not sure if there's a single fantasy player out there that's ranking anyone above CJ right now. Sometimes, that doesn't work out. All the hype amounts to a letdown. I don't think it will happen with Johnson. He's a bona fide superstar in both the rushing and receiving game. Guy set the single season record for yards from scrimmage. That's nothing to scoff at. Marshall Faulk held the previous record, set in 1999. How did Faulk follow up that record breaking year? Just another 2,189 yards from scrimmage and 26 touchdowns. You read it correctly. 26 touchdowns. There's no reason CJ can't have a similar follow-up year to Faulk. Hell, Johnson is already saying that his goal is to obliterate the rushing record and hit 2,500 yards on the ground. That's a lot. While I'm doubting his chances of fulfilling that particular goal, I don't necessarily doubt his chances of breaking the rushing record. He's a freak, and it's hard to plan against a guy that you simply just can't catch. Don't blink, because your next sight might be CJ scurrying into the endzone and scoring 6 for your fantasy squad.

So those are my top 10. I'll quickly run down a few guys that I like and dislike at their values right now. Remember, I'm talking about whether I think they're good picks in relation to their current preseason rankings.

Like: Knowshon Moreno, DEN. I know that the Broncos showed no signs that Moreno will become a feature back and log 300 carries, but he did break 1,000 yards from scrimmage and scored 9 touchdowns in his rookie campaign. His skill is undeniable, and he's slipping into the 4th round in some drafts. If Moreno is there in round 4, I think you have to give strong consideration to grabbing him for your backfield.

Like: Ryan Matthews, SD - Matthews is coming in under pressure to become LT's replacement there in San Diego. He does have Darren Sproles behind him on the depth chart, but Sproles has never really shown signs that he'll become the feature back of the Chargers. They're hoping they drafted one in Matthews. He's going between the late second and early third round right now. I'm staying away from him in the 2nd round, but in the third round, if you have no other targeted backs on the board, give him some thought.

Like: LeSean McCoy, PHI - McCoy figures to be Brian Westbrook's long term replacement in Philadelphia, and that Andy Reid offense does benefit his chances. McCoy will be featured in the aerial game as well as the ground game, and if he can get some more goalline carries, he'll be a valuable fantasy back. He's going late third to early fourth round, so again -- he merits consideration, in my opinion.

Dislike: Pierre Thomas, NO - Like I said, this is in relation to their current rankings. ESPN puts Thomas in the top 10. I'm not a fan. Thomas never had 20+ carries in a game last season, and the Saints primarily pass-heavy attack has never indicated that they would hand the ball off to Thomas all the time. They did invest in Reggie Bush and he won't sit on the bench, so he will always take some touches away from Thomas. Maybe it's just a personal vendetta, but Thomas will need to break 200 carries and 1,000 yards before I consider him worthy of a top-10 fantasy back status.

Dislike: DeAngelo Williams, CAR - Williams is a very talented back, but Jonathan Stewart has played like a star whenever Williams goes down. Coming off a severe ankle injury, and approaching the older half of 27 years old, I'm questioning whether Williams will ever be the amazing fantasy back he once was. He's being drafted with the 13th pick, on average. Like I said, I like him as a runner... but that's way too high for me, given the circumstances in Carolina.

Dislike: Joseph Addai, IND - Alright, maybe I just hate the Colts. But on the real side, Addai is in a contract year and he hasn't been impressive. I'm actually looking for Donald Brown to pick up the slack a little bit this year as the Colts look to transition out of the Addai era. He didn't break 80 rushing yards once in all of 2009. His per-carry average hasn't broken 4.1 since his rookie year (4.8) and it has been under 4.0 the past two seasons. I'm looking to avoid Addai at all costs. He's just not a guy I want on my fantasy team.

Well there you have it... all I have to give on running back analysis. Maybe you think I'm an idiot and you throw my advice out the window. That's fine. But I've been a relatively successful fantasy owner over the past few seasons, so don't come crying to me when your top pick goes flopping.