Thursday, August 12, 2010
Fantasy Football - Wide Receiver Sleepers
Devin Thomas | Washington Redskins | ADP: 11th round
Entering his third year in the NFL, Thomas is in position for a breakout season. It's easy to get excited about his potential, especially with quarterback Donovan McNabb now in charge. At 6-foot-2, 215 pounds, the Michigan State product has excellent size and a good amount of speed.
Wide receiver Santana Moss (knee), who is undervalued, has drawn praise from the coaching staff and doesn't seem to show any ill effects from recent cleanup surgery. In other words, there isn't pressure on Thomas to be more than a complementary receiver. McNabb has shown a penchant for spreading the ball around, too. We've seen Mike Shanahan offenses produce more than one quality fantasy receivers, even while having production from the tight end position.
Thomas needs to improve the minor aspects of his game to take it to another level. His work ethic has been in question since his rookie year, and he is plagued by inconsistency. Don't let that scare you off, though, because he is coming on the cheap. It's almost absurd how much of a bargain he has been in early drafts.
Fantasy value: Fantasy owners should consider him a potential No. 2 with a No. 4 or No. 5 price tag. In best-case scenario, you have a playmaker in what could be a prolific offense on your hands, or you cut him after a few weeks. Roll the dice when others are reaching for players without a team.
Johnny Knox | Chicago Bears | ADP: 13th round
The Abilene Christian product enjoyed a quality rookie season, catching 45 passes for 527 yards and scoring five touchdowns. Quarterback Jay Cutler has confidence in Knox, and the second-year receiver is entrenched as a starter.
Devin Hester will move from outside to the slot, depending upon the package, but Knox should remain out wide. Given Hester's struggles tracking the ball over his shoulder, the cornerback-turned-wideout isn't the best option on the team for the long ball. That's where Knox comes in. Don't be fooled by his 11.7 yards-per-reception average in 2009 ... it was a product of the Ron Turner-directed offense.
Fantasy value: While fantasy owners are focusing on Devin Aromashodu, Knox is flying under the radar. He could be considered undervalued, too, but there is legit sleeper status here. Aromashodu should be a possession receiver and red zone threat; Knox's receptions will probably remain low, but with an increased per-reception average, he could be a quality No. 3 fantasy receiver that you can generally land as a fourth or fifth.
Dexter McCluster | Kansas City Chiefs | ADP: 16th round
Everyone loves a sleeper candidate in the 16th round! McCluster figures to be the slot receiver for the Chiefs. Quarterback Matt Cassel isn't known for having a rocket arm, so you can count on a lot of underneath work. A do-all player at Mississippi, McCluster has the moves to rack up yardage after the catch. He has already drawn praise for being the fastest guy on the team, and the creative mind of head coach Todd Haley will figure out ways to get him involved, even if McCluster doesn't beat out Jerheme Urban for the No. 3 job. McCluster is better suited for the slot role, for what it is worth.
KC should remain a run-first offense, but we've seen a shaky relationship between No. 1 receiver Dwayne Bowe and Haley play out over the past year. Wideout Chris Chambers is serviceable, but there is a reason fantasy owners aren't drooling over him and defenders aren't scared of him. There could be plenty of looks for the youngster. Offensive coordinator Charlie Weis excels at designing routes to take advantage of mismatches.
Fantasy value: Take a shot on the dynamic rookie. We're usually not very high on first-year receivers, but there's the potential for something special here. Without feeling compelled to reach for him, don't forget his name on draft day. In point-per-reception leagues, McCluster's value increases some. He's not likely to be much of a factor in touchdown-heavy setups, though.
Nate Burleson | Detroit Lions | ADP: 18th round
Someone has to take pressure off Calvin Johnson, right? The Lions inked Burleson to do just that as their No. 2 wideout. The soon-to-be 29-year-old bounced back effectively from a torn anterior cruciate ligament in '08, hauling in 63 passes for 812 yards last season with the Seattle Seahawks. Burleson is just two seasons removed from a nine-touchdown year with Seattle, as well.
The vet logged at least five receptions in seven of his 13 games played last year, too. He isn't typically explosive but can at least chip in five to 10 fantasy points on a consistent basis in the right offense for point-per-reception setups. Despite his rookie struggles, Lions quarterback Matthew Stafford has the raw ability to take advantage of polished wideouts. The second-year slinger has a cannon.
Burleson's finest season came in '04 (68-1,006-9) with the Minnesota Vikings under offensive coordinator Scott Linehan, who now holds that position in Detroit. There is some familiarity here.
Fantasy value: Count Burleson as a No. 5 PPR wideout that won't command a stiff price and will offer stable depth. He should benefit from having an elite wideout playing across from him, which should once again mean a ton of cheap one-pointers for Burleson in PPR leagues. Burleson might achieve No. 3 status in those formats this year.
Jacoby Jones | Houston Texans | ADP: 18th round
The Texans are looking for Jones to step up in a big way. At 6-foot-2, 210 pounds, with excellent speed, Jones is an imposing threat for defenders. Houston needs a playmaker to help take some pressure off Andre Johnson, and wide receiver Kevin Walter is just average.
We figure Jones and Walter will alternate the No. 2 role at times, with the other moving into the slot when this happens. The biggest problem standing in Jones' way is Walter's five-year, $21.5 million contract ($8 million guaranteed) from this spring. The Texans may feel financially obligated to get the most out of Walter this year.
If tight end Owen Daniels (knee) doesn't recover as well as expected from his third anterior cruciate ligament tear, Houston's No. 3 receiver could be counted on frequently.
Fantasy value: Temper your expectations of Jones this year, but don't entirely discount him. Snag him as a late-round flier, but be prepared to cut ties if he doesn't see a lot of work early in the season since Daniels should only become stronger as the year wears on.
Donte' Stallworth | Baltimore Ravens | ADP: N/A
You see that "N/A" following ADP? That means he isn't being drafted, on average. While it's not a shock by any means, it's still unwarranted. The speedy veteran was given the year off last season after an alcohol-related driving incident that resulted in a man's death. Reports coming out of local-area media suggest Stallworth hasn't lost a beat. His speed is still there, and he has been moving with fluidity. You shouldn't be too worried about the year off ... think of it as he was injured, without the worries of a recovery.
Quarterback Joe Flacco has a huge arm and has a new downfield toy to work with. Stallworth has battled injuries throughout his career, but often he has been a functional fantasy flex option - and even greater at times. There is no pressure on Stallworth, and expectations of him are at an all-time low, as represented by his non-existent ADP. Currently running as the No. 3 receiver, expect a few games of mouth-watering production.
Fantasy value: The biggest problem for fantasy owners with Stallworth will be when to play him. Take a shot with the last pick of your draft and hope for the best. That late in the selection process you can't go wrong.
Louis Murphy | Oakland Raiders | ADP: N/A
Hear us out. Receivers on the Raiders aren't prime commodities, but Murphy flashed some dynamic ability last season despite a 34-521-4 line. One note, three of those scores came with Bruce Gradkowski - not JaMarcus Russell - behind center.
Jason Campbell, Oakland's new QB, is an upgrade from both and has a strong enough arm to take advantage of both Murphy's skills and the Raiders' planned vertical growth under new OC Hue Jackson. Murphy, who posted a respectable 15.5 yards per catch last year, has certainly shown more with his deep ball skills than first-round disappointment Darrius Heyward-Bey, who remains raw. A concussion has slowed Murphy early in camp, but it's not expected to keep him out long.
Fantasy value: Murphy can be had as a No. 6 or lower in most setups, so the price of taking a chance offers little risk. He has the ability to perform as a No. 3 if the Raiders' offense explodes; with their yearning for a deep threat and their newfound access to reach them via Campbell, Murphy could nudge his way into more looks. More realistically, he probably has a No. 4 ceiling for this year, which isn't bad for a bench option.
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