Fantasy Outlook: Top Tier Backs

For most fantasy leagues, draft day is quickly approaching. A lot of people spend their time searching the records for the best sleeper picks, best 2nd and 3rd wideouts, third-down backs that could end up being fantasy impacts. Because, after all, those role players are the ones that make championship fantasy teams. Even though it's tough to pick a 1st round fantasy bust, I think it's still pretty important that you get the best guy on the board in your draft.

So let's talk about the most coveted position on a fantasy football team -- the running backs. I think it's safe to say that Chris Johnson will go with the top pick in the majority of fantasy leagues this season. He approached record-breaking totals last season, and he has vowed that he is determined to come back and break those records he was unable to break. The thing about Johnson that makes it so tough for teams to adjust is that he's simply too fast. With other backs, you might be able to study enough film to learn how to cover the right holes, tackle a certain way, run certain defenses. With Johnson, you just have to get faster. And that's a tough thing for a defense to do. I expect and believe that he should go with the first pick. So having said that, who's next in line?

Most people will take Adrian Peterson as the second back off the board. For me, I've never been an AP fan. If I have the second pick, I would almost consider trading it down -- as crazy as that sounds. If someone wants to give me an extra 8th or 9th rounder to move up to that slot and get AP, I'd be happy to give that to them. He can take his fumbles and go to some other team. Peterson broke 100 rushing yards just 3 times last season. This year, the Vikings are a team in limbo with the ever-stalling decision of Brett Favre's return. You might say that Peterson's numbers went down when Favre came, and that he'd be better off without Favre. But realistically, his numbers were just as good. He scored 8 more rushing touchdowns as a result of Favre getting them down the field. He saw about 50 fewer carries and his yards per carry dropped, but my point is that I don't think he's better off without Favre. So ultimately, I think the jury is still out on AP. Favre or no Favre, though, there are some backs that I would take before Peterson this year.

1. Ray Rice. If I were a betting man right now, I'd give Rice the best chance of scoring more fantasy points than one of the two frontrunners in most people's minds (Johnson & Peterson). Rice was actually in a tandem last season with Willis McGahee, but you never would have known it. The guy rushed like a maniac, averaging 5.3 yards per carry and scoring 7 touchdowns. Oh, did I mention his 78 receptions for 702 yards? Only 5 receptions short of Randy Moss, and his yards total would have placed him third on the Patriots receiver chart. Not bad for a running back in a platoon. One of just two running backs to surpass 2,000 yards from scrimmage. Assuming he takes over as the lead back in Baltimore (a hell of a team in the making), I see no reason why he won't have a stellar season. I'm taking him over Peterson if I'm choosing at #2.
2. Maurice Jones-Drew. I'd probably choose MJD over Peterson at #2 as well, but most people want Peterson at #2. So I'd be seeing if I could trade down to #3. Whatever the negotiation, if I could get MJD and some kind of additional compensation just for giving up Adrian Peterson -- be my guest. Jones-Drew was always an exciting back when he was platooning with Fred Taylor in Jacksonville, but he emerged in a big way in his first year as the feature back. He eclipsed 300 carries for the first time in his career, saw his yards-per-carry average rise, and scurried in for 15 touchdowns on the ground. Throw in his 53 receptions for 374 yards, and consider his low fumble total, I consider him the better value. If I couldn't trade the pick, I'd still take him at #2 over Peterson.
3. Steven Jackson. You're probably writing me off as crazy. But I'm serious when I say that if I were to rank the most talented running backs in the NFL, solely based on the players themselves, Jackson would be #2 behind Johnson. Hands down, in my opinion. The guy has been stuck on the worst team in the world, and he is still a rock solid fantasy option year in and year out. Guess who finished 2nd behind Chris Johnson's 2,006-yard freak show last year on the ground? Jackson did. He compiled 1,416 yards rushing, as well has 51 receptions for 322 yards. The problem with Jackson has always been touchdowns. 4 TD's last year. Well, when you look at the Rams, they added the top quarterback in the draft. Can Bradford make an impact right away? Who knows, but if he does, then you're going to see Jackson's touchdown numbers go up. He has always been relied on way too heavily, and he still succeeds. Teams stack the box because they know the Rams can't beat them with the passing game. And Jackson still gets his numbers. If the Rams can develop any kind of passing threat -- and simply having Bradford could potentially be a threat in itself -- then Jackson's numbers will likely rise from a fantasy standpoint.
4. Frank Gore. Gore has always been the guy who shows the flashes of brilliance, is always projected very highly in the draft, but never really becomes the fantasy superstar everyone hopes for. I think this year is different for Gore. The 49ers had a clear theme to their 2010 draft, and it involved building this team around Gore -- finally. We've seen the guy break off consecutive 12 yard rushes and then the Niners start passing the ball. Sometimes they don't stay on the winning horse the way they should. But now it seems like they're willing to do it. And it only means good things for Gore. If he stays healthy, this will be his best fantasy season. And it's going to be a damn good one, at that. I might not pick him at #2 over the other guys, but I'm certainly considering trading down to #4 or #5 because of the guys that are on this list. Get something in return? Yes please.

You can take my advice or you can throw it out the window. Frankly, it doesn't matter to me. But I've always been a firm believer that Adrian Peterson is the most overrated running back in the NFL. That isn't to say he's not a great back -- if I had the #2 pick in real life, I'd definitely have to give serious consideration to selecting AP -- but he has never, in my opinion, been as good as everyone makes him out to be. They were calling his name into the Hall of Fame in his rookie year. Please! Chris Johnson just had a better year than AP has ever had. Does that make him a Hall of Famer? The way I see it, Peterson does have one of the best run-blocking lines in front of him. Guys like Jackson, Johnson, Gore, and Jones-Drew -- their lines have pretty much all been weaker than Peterson's in recent history. I put AP in that group of guys you're looking to take with selections 2-6 after CJ goes #1. But I am by no means shooting his name straight to the top just because he's Adrian Peterson. When you have the most fumbles in the entire NFL since his debut (which he has), you've got to do a little more to prove to me you're the real deal.