Fantasy Outlook -- My Top 10 QBs

Tricked you. You thought I was going to put JaMarcus Russell in the top 10, didn't you? Ha! Anyway, with fantasy drafts quickly approaching, I'm going to make my case for the top 10 QBs in the NFL this year. Most leagues have 8-10 teams, which means that you will likely end up with one of these guys. I'm telling you the order in which I have them ranked for the season. We'll work our way down for the sake of excitement.

10. Donovan McNabb, WAS - McNabb is always a perennial fantasy threat, but there are a lot of things that always get in the way of his success. Injuries have been a huge plague for him throughout this decade. The other big criticism against him is his inability to win playoff games -- a non-factor for fantasy. McNabb mans a brand new Washington offense with some definitely wild cards in the back field. Clinton Portis, Larry Johnson, and Willie Parker were all big-time backs at one time or another. McNabb has always loved using his backs in the passing game, and when it comes to depth, I'd say the Redskins have the potential to be a better backfield than he had in Philadelphia. But overall, he doesn't have the same caliber of offensive weapons in his arsenal. Leftnut broke down receiver sleepers a few weeks ago, and he brought up the potential that the 'Skins receiving core has. McNabb will have chances to go downfield and there's definitely the possibility that he succeeds in his new setting. In his new division, he faces the Giants and the Eagles twice each -- both team were bottom-10 in the league for passing touchdowns allowed. If McNabb can get on the same page with these backs and receivers that are currently big question marks, then he will definitely be an impact player on your squad when healthy. The preference, though, would be to have a better QB in case.

9. Philip Rivers, SD - I've never been the biggest Rivers fan, but this next season could be a very telling season for his fantasy value in years to come. The Chargers are a transitioning team with a very questionable backfield in comparison to recent years. Rivers' top offensive weapon last season, Vincent Jackson, is still not on the same page with the team and many reports say he will not be any time soon. If he misses a good chunk of the season, Rivers' fantasy status takes a big hit. That's why I have him at 9 as opposed to some ranking him as high as 4 or 5. I just don't think he has a very productive year this season. Teams can play the pass more often with a more questionable backfield. If rookie Ryan Matthews can step up and run hard, then great -- maybe that will open things up for Rivers. But until I see a reason to believe the Chargers can put together a high octane offense again (and solidify their questionable defense), I can't give Rivers high praise for fantasy. Don't forget, though, that he plays in a pretty weak division when it comes to passing defense.

8. Carson Palmer, CIN - A lot of rankings have Palmer way down there, barely making the top 20. I don't see it. Palmer has been injury-riddled for much of the time that he's been a poor fantasy contributor. I think he puts it back together this year. He has arguably the most talented receiving core in the league with Ochocinco, T.O, and Antonio Bryant. If those guys find a way to work in sync and Cedric Benson runs hard like he did last season, there's a good chance Palmer sees inevitable success. People still question his arm strength and accuracy, but the Bengals were a run-first offense with the emergence of Benson last season. Acquiring two very talented receivers could change the equation. With the exception of Buffalo, Owens has always made his QBs into fantasy producers. Put Ocho and Bryant on either side of him, and all Palmer needs to do is be average to get points. You can get Palmer pretty low this season -- he's going past the 10th round. If the 10th round comes and he's still there, I just think he's a QB that you must take a chance on. Don't rely on him as your starter from the get-go, but I think his reward is far higher than his risk.

7. Joe Flacco, BAL - Flacco is going between rounds 5 and 6 this year, and I think he's a great bargain in those rounds. Although he only finished 18th in the league in fantasy QB scoring last season, he's a player with tremendous upside and increased weapons at his disposal. Ray Rice will be the full-on feature back this season and is one of the best pass-catching backs in the game today. Dump it off and watch him run -- the easiest points a fantasy QB can get. Flacco has impressed as a passer in his first two years in Baltimore. What happens when you add a premiere talent like Anquan Boldin and a downfield threat (possibly) in Donte Stallworth? Even though Baltimore may still be a run-first offense, those screens and dump-offs to Rice will still be a big part of the game plan. I expect Flacco to make his third year in the NFL his best after last season's slight downgrade from a great rookie year. The Ravens -- if I had to pick a team other than my hometown Patriots -- are my pick to win the AFC. Flacco will be a big part of it. If you're spending your top picks on backs and receivers, Flacco is one of the best second-tier QBs in this league.

6. Matt Schaub, HOU - In a lot of rankings, Schaub is a spot or two higher than I have him, and there's some justification in that. He has a freak of nature at his disposal in Andre Johnson, and Schaub has shown a clear aptitude for connecting on the long ball with him. That being said, the Texans will need a running game in order to prevent teams from doubling Johnson and taking him out of the equation. Two years ago it was Steve Slaton, last year it was Ryan Moats. Someone is always emerging out of nowhere and having a solid year. Will it happen again? Arian Foster is listed on Houston's depth chart as the #1 running back. Slaton is behind him. Personally, I still find this to be a huge question mark. Besides Johnson, Houston doesn't have an extremely deep receiving core, either. Schaub led the NFL in passing yards, completions, and attempts last season, so he should definitely be considered very carefully. But I see a drop in his production that levels him with the field of second-tier QBs in the NFL.

5. Tony Romo, DAL - Almost every website out there has Schaub above Romo, but I think Romo wins this one. Whether you like it or not, Romo has always been a great fantasy producer. I find myself drafting him often because he's usually a fair bargain and is a reliable source week in and week out. Miles Austin has emerged as an elite receiver, and rookie Dez Bryant figures to have the potential to be a dynamic playmaker at Romo's disposal. Add in one of the deepest backfields in the league, and you have a guy with just the same if not an improved arsenal around him. He faces weak pass defenses within his division, and he protected the ball much better last season as well. If you go by the numbers, Romo's passing stats were not far off from those of Aaron Rodgers last season. Rodgers' rushing stats separate the two by a good margin, but you can't deny that Romo is a good passer on a Super Bowl contending team with weapons. That in itself is a reason to draft him.

4. Peyton Manning, IND - I'm prepared for all of the criticism I take for placing Manning 4th on this list, but I truly believe that Manning is on the other side of the hill. Don't take that the wrong way -- he's still probably the most important player to his team in the NFL. But I'm a numbers guy as well as a realist. Last season, Manning was held to less than 2 passing touchdowns in 7 of his 16 games. I didn't check all his other years, but I'd be willing to bet that's a career high -- or at least close. His final stats still ended up pretty good, thanks to four separate 4-TD games through the air. So yes, of course, he's still a threat as always. And I'll be the first to admit that there's a great chance he out-performs this ranking. But the inconsistency we saw last season is something we are not used to seeing with Peyton. Is it a sign of things to come? Who knows. But I'm not using a super-high pick on him like everyone else in the fantasy world chooses to do. He's not the automatic superstar that he used to be.

3. Tom Brady, NE - #3 is a pretty high spot for Brady, but my Boston bias and optimism comes into play a little bit. Still, I don't think it's unreasonable to put him here. The lowest I could possibly drop him to is #5, I think. He could out-perform his ranking anywhere up to #1. But most Pats fans will agree that last season was a pretty bad year. Frustrating to watch and just not the same high-powered passing attack we saw in 2007 and expected in 2009. Still, with a QB rating of 96.3 and hurling 28 touchdowns, Brady was one of the top fantasy quarterbacks in the league. I mentioned I'm a numbers guy and a realist. Sometimes the realism disregards the numbers a bit. I look at this from the realistic point of view, and I see a guy who wants redemption on a team that is rejuvenated. Am I putting too much stock into 1 preseason game? Possibly. And I'm not jumping to conclusions by the fact that we toasted the Saints' first team defense either. I'm just talking about the little things. Body language. Intensity. Smarts. Brady getting pumped about a rushing touchdown in Week 1 of the preseason. I just get a different feeling about this year's New England team. And it all starts with Brady. Now with a full year of post-ACL injury play, Brady has no reason not to be the quarterback we saw three years ago.

2. Drew Brees, NO - The top 2 are a toss-up and are getting flip-flopped in just about every league. I put Brees at #2. It's almost by default that I do it. Amazing quarterback on the Super Bowl champs. How do you duplicate that success? Brees and the Saints have a huge target on their backs for every team they go up against. I don't see Brees making fools out of teams quite as much as he did last season. Don't be mistaken -- he's still #2 here. He'll be a terrific fantasy producer per usual. But I would just expect a slight downgrade from a season which saw him break 100 in his passer rating for the first time as a Saint, notching a career-high rating of 109.6. I expect to see him back into the high 90s or near 100 this year. One of the biggest fantasy producers and as close as you can get to a sure-thing fantasy stud at QB, you simply can't go wrong drafting Brees as your QB.

1. Aaron Rodgers, GB - Can't get off the winning horse here. Rodgers was the best fantasy QB in 2009-10 and I expect that he will be once again in 2010-11. He has virtually the same weapons and an improved offensive line, which has been the biggest obstacle for him in recent years. He always leads the NFL in sacks taken, but he still finds a way to lead the league as a passer and as a rushing QB. You don't come across guys like Rodgers very often. Think about some of the best rushing quarterbacks you've seen. Vick comes to mind right away. He's an example. Great rusher, subpar passer. Rodgers has the best of both worlds. Pick your poison; he can beat you on the ground or through the air. His passing numbers are just a step down from those of Drew Brees, but his rushing numbers (career-highs with 316 yards and 5 scores on the ground last year) bump him onto the highest echelon of fantasy QBs today. He takes a hell of a beating in the pocket with all those sacks (84 times in the last 2 years... yikes) and injury may be a potential concern, but he hasn't missed any time in the past two years due to those sacks. So I see no reason to believe he will now, especially with that offensive line improving. Like I said, you can't go wrong with Brees or Rodgers. But I'm selecting Rodgers if it's time to choose between the two.